Ethereum : The Market Watches a Decisive Quarterly Close

Ethereum reaches a key moment of the quarter, as ETH risks recording a sequence never seen in its history. The second cryptocurrency on the market remains down, but it still has a window to reverse the trend. Between a more favorable macroeconomic context, mixed technical signals, and an increase in staking, the quarterly close now attracts all attention.

Ethereum Risks A first Series of Three Red Quarters

Ethereum is going through a marked-down phase, as the end of the quarter approaches. In this context, the asset is approaching an important historical threshold. According to Coinglass data, it has never ended three consecutive quarters in the red. Such a close would mark a first since its creation and would reinforce investor caution.

Recent figures show the magnitude of this pressure on the market:

• ETH fell by 28.28% in Q4 2025.
• The token then lost 29.26% in Q1 2026.
• In the current quarter, it still shows a decrease of 18.4%.

This succession of losses reflects a prolonged period of weakness for Ethereum. It also weighs on investor confidence, as the market now awaits a clearer signal before more decisively returning to the asset. This correction has also brought ETH close to lows observed over several years.

In this climate, fear remains present. Analyst Dann Crypto Trades summarized the situation by stating that “Ethereum is heading towards its second worst first half after 2022.” Thus, the quarterly close becomes an important moment to measure ETH’s ability to limit this negative sequence.

A Rebound Still Possible Before The Close

Despite the recent drop in Ether, the situation remains open before the end of the quarter. Two weeks before the close, the asset retains a last window to reduce its losses and avoid a third consecutive period in the red. The timeframe is short, but a recovery movement can still influence the final performance if the momentum holds.

Several factors still support the hypothesis of a catch-up:

• The total crypto market capitalization has increased by 2% in the last 24 hours.
• Ethereum gained 2.6% over the same period, slightly outperforming the overall market.
• The ETH price traded above $1,700 after this market rebound.
• After two consecutive quarters of losses, ETH has historically recorded a positive quarter.
• In 2022, the asset rebounded 24% after two quarters in the red.

This context thus gives buyers an argument, even if caution remains necessary. More modest recoveries also followed similar periods in 2019 and 2020. These precedents show that the asset has already managed to recover after prolonged weakness phases.

However, a nuanced reading must be kept. A sustained recovery might need to extend into the third quarter, which remains historically the weakest for Ethereum. Its average return is only 7.44%, which shows that the path toward a stronger rise can remain fragile despite recent signals.

Staking and Technical Signals Support ETH, Despite Risks

Technical indicators also give mixed signals. Analyst Ardi observes a convergence with several past cycle lows. He notably cites the recent contact of ETH with a lower acceptance cloud, as well as certain trends related to the RSI. For Ethereum, these elements can suggest a phase of progressive stabilization.

But this reading remains cautious. The weekly RSI has not yet stayed several weeks below the 30 threshold, as in previous cycles. At the same time, the ETH/BTC pair remains in a strong downtrend. As long as this pair continues to retreat, ETH still has downside potential.

On the blockchain, staking data show sustained demand. More than 39.5 million ETH are currently locked with more than 887,000 validators. This dynamic shows that many holders choose to lock their tokens instead of selling them.

This evolution does not confirm a strongly bearish scenario. On the contrary, the increase in staking can limit part of the potential selling pressure. Ethereum thus enters a decisive end of quarter: a confirmed rebound could avoid a historic first, while renewed weakness would extend the market’s uncertain phase.