Hayes Sees ETH at $20K In Current Bull Cycle

While the asset has just broken its all-time high, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, reignites the debate by putting forward a shocking prediction : Ethereum could reach between 10,000 and 20,000 dollars by the end of the bull cycle. A statement that, in a climate of strong monetary uncertainty, resonates as a strong signal for the crypto ecosystem, between personal conviction, macroeconomic reading, and very real market dynamics.

An anticipation driven by macroeconomics and technical analysis

While Ethereum attracts increasing interest through strong on-chain activity, Arthur Hayes did not mince his words during his appearance on the Crypto Banter podcast. Asked about his projections for Ethereum, the former BitMEX CEO stated : “I think ETH will reach 10,000 or 20,000 dollars before the end of the cycle”.

This cycle, which he associates with the entire current bullish phase, could according to him peak under a Trump administration, from which he anticipates a return to aggressive money printing policies. He specified : “we have from 2026 until the end of Trump’s term for them to go completely crazy with the amount of money they will print”.

This prospect of a massive return of money printing by the US Federal Reserve is, according to Hayes, a major catalyst for high-risk financial assets, of which Ethereum would be one of the first beneficiaries.

To reinforce his argument, Hayes also relies on recent technical signals. Ethereum indeed passed a new all-time high at $4,880, surpassing its previous record from November 2021.

This crossing of the ATH represents a regime change for the market. Hayes summarizes the phenomenon: “once the threshold is crossed, there is an air gap upwards”.

In other words, with the psychological resistance broken, the market becomes more conducive to accelerated growth. Several elements support this technical analysis :

• The ETH price jumped 15 % in 24 hours at the very moment the Fed chair adopted a more dovish tone at Jackson Hole ;

• The crossing of the ATH created a psychological momentum among investors ;

• The macroeconomic environment suggests future monetary easing, which historically tends to favor cryptos.

Institutional accumulation and the growing weight of Ethereum ETFs

Beyond macroeconomic expectations, Hayes also bases his analysis on concrete market dynamics. He notably highlights the massive accumulation of ETH by certain digital treasury companies, citing BitMine Immersion Technologies and SharpLink Gaming.

These two entities alone would hold more than 10 billion dollars in Ethereum, illustrating a global trend of institutional adoption. “It will be easier to raise funds if the asset you buy has broken its all-time high and continues to climb” explains Hayes, emphasizing the leverage effect that a bullish move can have on institutional investors’ decisions.

Another central point of his reasoning lies in the rise of Ethereum ETFs, which recorded record inflows in July. These funds now hold more than 5 % of the total supply of ETH.

Such a movement not only reflects the growing interest of the traditional financial sector in Ethereum, but also contributes to reducing the supply available on the market, which can accentuate upward pressure on prices.

Moreover, Hayes is not just an external commentator. He is personally exposed to the asset. Indeed, he acquired around 1,800 ETH, worth more than 8.6 million dollars, bringing his portfolio balance to over 50 million dollars in ETH and derivatives.

The convergence of these factors, supported inflows, institutional accumulation, and Hayes’ personal involvement, could well amplify the scenario he describes. However, these dynamics, as powerful as they are, do not eliminate uncertainties : persistent volatility, dependence on the US political calendar, regulation under construction. While the $20,000 threshold still seems distant, the current direction of the crypto market and the identified structural signals no longer allow discarding this hypothesis.