Michael Saylor predicts a strong Bitcoin recovery by the end of the year

What if bitcoin entered a new era, where scarcity would no longer be a speculative narrative but an accounting reality? Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, warns of a tipping point: institutional demand, driven by ETFs and listed companies, now exceeds supply from mining. As bitcoin oscillates between $111,000 and $118,000, a structural imbalance, but potentially explosive for the price, is settling in.

Buying pressure that exceeds supply

While institutions have regained control with massive purchases, Michael Saylor stated in an interview: “the companies betting on bitcoin buy more than what mining specialists naturally produce”.

He points out that combined demand from companies and institutional funds in the form of spot ETFs far exceeds the 900 BTC produced daily by mining companies. A recent study published by the financial services company River confirms this statement. On average, 1,755 BTC per day are purchased by companies, with an additional 1,430 BTC acquired daily by ETFs in 2025.

In total, 3,185 BTC per day are withdrawn from the market for a production capped at 900 BTC, according to Bitbo data.

This deep imbalance creates an unprecedented scarcity effect in bitcoin’s recent history. It is not a one-time surge but rather a sustained and quantifiable phenomenon likely to influence prices in the long term. Here are the approximate figures:

• Average daily production: 900 BTC;
• Daily company purchases: 1,755 BTC;
• Daily ETF purchases: 1,430 BTC;
• Estimated total demand: 3,185 BTC per day;
• Demand surplus over supply: +2,285 BTC/day.

At a time when bitcoin is trading within a narrow price range, this buying pressure helps lock up available supply. Despite a massive liquidation of nearly $2 billion in the crypto market early this week, which analysts attribute to technical factors without questioning fundamentals, institutional signals remain firmly bullish.

“As we overcome current resistances and some adverse macroeconomic winds, bitcoin should resume significant growth by the end of the year,” concludes Saylor.

Bitcoin as a treasury asset and digital capital

For Michael Saylor, not all companies buying bitcoin do so with the same strategy or profile. “There are two types of institutional buyers today,” he specifies.

The first group consists of traditional operational companies that, instead of redistributing their capital as dividends or share buybacks, choose to invest their cash surpluses in bitcoin.

According to Saylor, this approach strengthens their financial structure but also protects against monetary inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Strategy, which currently holds 638,985 BTC, embodies this strategy in an emblematic way.

The second group comprises what Saylor calls “true treasury companies,” in other words companies that do not simply use bitcoin as a passive reserve but consider it as a full-fledged digital capital.

“The world operated for 300 years with gold-backed credit. It will now operate with digital gold-backed credit,” he states. These companies use bitcoin as collateral to design new digital financial instruments (bonds, structured products or other forms of tokenized credit). For Saylor, bitcoin becomes “the ideal asset” to meet growing demand for debt and equity instruments in traditional markets seeking a new credible standard.

This gradual shift of bitcoin’s role, from speculative asset to foundation of a digital financial system, opens the way to many possible developments. On one hand, the growing financialization of BTC by institutional giants could strengthen its legitimacy with regulators and traditional markets. On the other hand, it raises concerns regarding the increasing centralization of supply in the hands of a limited number of institutional actors. If this trend continues at this pace, the question will no longer be whether bitcoin is scarce, but who holds it—and especially, for what purposes.