PlanB estimates that the current cycle could drive Bitcoin's average price to $500,000

The bitcoin market reignites the debate around its growth cycles. Indeed, analyst PlanB estimates that the price of bitcoin could reach an average of $500,000 during the current cycle. This estimate is based on the update of his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, often used to analyze the scarcity of BTC. Thus, this new projection draws the attention of crypto investors and market analysts.

Bitcoin price could reach $500,000 according to the Stock-to-Flow model

While bitcoin just dropped 2% Sunday evening, PlanB recently updated his Stock-to-Flow model, used to analyze bitcoin’s scarcity and the evolution of its market cycle. According to this analysis, bitcoin’s price could reach an average close to $500,000 during the period following the 2024 halving.

Firstly, this model is based on the relationship between the available supply and the annual production of new BTC. Each halving reduces bitcoin creation, which gradually decreases the market supply. Historically, these events have often preceded marked BTC price increases.

The chart published by PlanB also shows that bitcoin’s price often follows a trajectory close to certain long-term indicators. Notably observed are the 200-week moving average and the realized price, two benchmarks used by many analysts to evaluate market trends.

According to this analysis, several elements appear on the chart:

• BTC’s price generally stays above the 200-week moving average during bullish cycles;
• Periods of euphoria often correspond to a high RSI, signaling strong market activity;
• The Stock-to-Flow model projects an average of about $500,000 for the 2024-2028 cycle.

Thus, this chart illustrates bitcoin’s progression in successive steps after each halving. However, these projections remain statistical models. The real evolution of Bitcoin’s price will also depend on market demand and macroeconomic conditions.

What factors could influence Bitcoin’s price in this cycle?

This new estimate fuels discussions around bitcoin cycles and crypto market evolution. Indeed, many investors follow these models to better understand long-term trends.

Moreover, several factors could influence bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming years:

• the progressive reduction of supply after each halving;
• the increase in institutional demand for bitcoin.

However, it is important to remember that statistical models do not guarantee market evolution. Bitcoin’s price remains sensitive to several external elements.

For example, macroeconomic conditions, global liquidity, and regulatory decisions can alter market dynamics. Additionally, BTC volatility may cause temporary deviations from theoretical projections.

In this context, investors closely watch on-chain data, flows to exchange platforms, and movements of major wallets.

A Bitcoin cycle still in development

For now, the Bitcoin market continues its evolution within a cycle that remains incomplete. Projections established on the Stock-to-Flow model must therefore be observed over a longer period.

However, several indicators suggest that the market could still evolve in the coming years. At the same time, volatility remains high and extreme fear is again taking over the crypto market, reflecting the current uncertainty of investors. The next movements of bitcoin’s price will thus make it possible to measure whether the estimates put forward by PlanB truly approximate BTC’s trajectory.