Polymarket Bets On XRP ETF With 83 % Probability

In a crypto ecosystem where every move is scrutinized by investors, the sudden rise of XRP on the regulatory stage intrigues. Within a few days, the probability of approval for a spot ETF backed by this asset has jumped to 83 %, according to Polymarket. This figure, far from trivial, crystallizes a strategic turning point in the battle between the crypto industry and the SEC. More than a speculative signal, it embodies a possible shift towards a long-awaited institutional legitimization.

Market Dynamics : Towards an Early Approval ?

The CME Group has officially launched futures contracts on XRP starting May 19, marking a significant advance in the institutional structuring of the digital asset.

Signals in favor of a spot XRP ETF have multiplied recently, fueling palpable optimism in the markets. At the heart of this excitement, the prediction platform Polymarket has estimated an 83 % probability of near-term approval, an unprecedented level.

This anticipation contrasts with the SEC’s usually rigid timeline. As James Seyffart, analyst at Bloomberg, reminds us, “the SEC often uses the entire 240-day period to review 19b-4 type applications”. A recent example illustrates this trend. On May 20, the Commission postponed its decision on Bitwise’s Ether staking, extending the deadline to July 22.

Behind these numbers lies a series of concrete events that show growing institutional interest :

• The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched its first XRP futures contracts, marking a major step in regulating the asset ;
• A few days later, Volatility Shares listed an ETF based on XRP futures (XRPI) on Nasdaq, adding a new layer of legitimacy to the product ;
• Meanwhile, the company Tectrium unveiled a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF, designed for investors seeking leverage on the asset’s daily performance.

Although these are not yet spot products, these instruments available on regulated platforms reflect sustained demand from institutional investors. Subsequently, the price of XRP appreciated, reinforcing the perception of favorable momentum. The market thus seems to anticipate a green light in the short to medium term, even if official deadlines remain, for the most part, set for October.

The SEC Under Pressure : An Inevitable Regulatory Shift?

Beyond market noise, it is the internal discourse among historical players in the ecosystem that draws attention. Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, reminded in the company’s official podcast that the emergence of ETFs represents a preferred entry point for financial institutions: “ETFs allow Wall Street to get exposure to crypto without going through exchanges or private wallets”.

He cited the example of the Bitcoin ETF, which reached $1 billion in assets faster than any other ETF in history, to emphasize the similar potential of a product related to XRP. This statement is not mere communication but a strategic positioning as the SEC appears to be losing the narrative control around crypto ETFs.

In this climate of regulatory stirrings, caution remains essential. The SEC has deferred decisions on other products, notably the Grayscale XRP Trust and a Solana ETF in preparation. These repeated delays feed a sense of dilatory, even defensive, management on the regulator’s part. Analysts also underline that probabilities from platforms like Polymarket, though interesting as sentiment indicators, remain very volatile. Nothing guarantees that today’s observed trend will hold as October deadlines approach.