Predictive Market: Kalshi Targets a Record Valuation of $40 Billion

The predictive market is experiencing a new phase of expansion. According to the Financial Times, Kalshi is negotiating a new fundraising round that could bring its valuation to $40 billion (up from $22 billion in May). If the deal goes through, the company founded by Tarek Mansour would multiply its value by eight in less than a year. Enough to attract the attention of institutional investors, financial platforms, and technology groups seeking new growth drivers.

From $5 Billion to $40 Billion in Eight Months: What This Rise Hides

In October 2025, the valuation of the predictive market platform Kalshi stood at $5 billion. In December, $11 billion. In May 2026, $22 billion after a $1 billion Series F. According to Financial Times reports, Kalshi is currently negotiating a new raise at $40 billion. This represents an 8-fold increase in less than a year.

According to expert analysts, these figures are not just a fad. They reflect a growing conviction among the world’s most selective investors. Reference is made to Coatue Management, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Sequoia Capital, Morgan Stanley, and Ark Invest, all of whom participated in the last raise.

Analysis: the predictive market is on its way to becoming a full-fledged financial infrastructure.

$17.9 Billion Per Month: How Did Kalshi Turn the Tables Against Predictive Market Giant Polymarket?

One year ago, Polymarket largely dominated the global predictive market in terms of volume. The decentralized platform benefited from the 2024 US presidential election to establish itself as the global reference.

But a strategic pivot by Kalshi changed everything. In September 2025, this predictive market giant entered into a partnership with Robinhood. The goal: enable users to trade on NFL and college football game outcomes. This shift toward mainstream sports triggered an explosion in activity.

According to Token Terminal data cited by the Financial Times and Cointelegraph, Kalshi’s monthly notional volume reached $17.9 billion in May 2025 (compared to only $7.1 billion for Polymarket). Sports-related contracts now represent about 65% of Kalshi’s total volume.

Combined multi-outcome contracts, introduced last year, have thus become one of the main growth drivers. On an annualized basis, Kalshi’s volume exceeds $178 billion. This represents more than triple the level recorded six months earlier. According to the data, over $2 billion committed on Kalshi and Polymarket on the eve of the 2026 World Cup.

Interest in Kalshi Now Extends Beyond Crypto and Fintech Spheres

According to the New York Times, Mark Zuckerberg reportedly asked his teams to develop a predictive market mobile app called “Arena.” It would be designed to directly compete with Kalshi and Polymarket. Of course, Meta has not publicly confirmed these reports. Nevertheless, merely mentioning such a project sends a strong signal: the prediction market is becoming a mainstream consumer product.

That’s not all! The Cboe Global Markets also launched a predictive markets platform called Cboe Predicts with binary contracts linked to the S&P 500. The entry of one of the world’s largest financial market operators into this space changes the dynamic. Indeed, it normalizes the concept with regulators, institutions, and the general public.

In any case, Kalshi is rewriting the rules of mainstream financial markets. It remains to be seen whether US regulators will support this evolution or choose to slow its development. This question could determine the next chapter of the global predictive market.