Santiment : Market Not Scared Enough For A Rebound

While bitcoin continues its decline, an anomaly intrigues : fear does not dominate. Unlike the troughs marked by panic selling and widespread pessimism, current signals remain surprisingly moderate. No emotional tidal wave, no real capitulation is looming. This relative calm, out of sync with the bearish dynamic, raises questions: is the correction really over, or is the market still holding its breath before a sharper retreat?

Fear sentiment remains too low according to Santiment

According to Santiment, the current atmosphere on social media around cryptocurrencies does not reflect real panic, even as the US monetary tightening slows bitcoin’s progress.

Maksim Balashevich, founder of the platform, states that “the market is simply not scared enough yet” to suggest a true price floor. This analysis is based on observing messages posted on popular social channels, where latent optimism is still detected.

“When people become irrationally bullish despite falling prices, it indicates the bottom has not yet been reached,” he explains. In other words, the absence of fear signals that investor capitulation has not yet occurred.

Several key indicators support this market reading :

• The Fear & Greed Index has stayed for a long time in the “extreme fear” zone, with a score near 20, signaling a fragile but not desperate sentiment ;

• The Altcoin Season Index shows a clear preference for bitcoin, which is interpreted as a retreat to safer assets ;

• Interaction volumes on social networks do not show an explosion of panic, but rather a form of resilience that intrigues analysts;

• The absence of dominant capitulation rhetoric on major forums and channels suggests that investors have not yet given in to total fear, a condition generally observed at historic lows.

These elements confirm Santiment’s thesis. As long as the market remains in an emotional in-between, without real fear or euphoria, the scenario of a sustained recovery seems premature.

A bearish pressure settles despite the hope of some analysts

Beyond sentiment indicators, Santiment foresees a continuation of bitcoin’s decline if the emotional climate does not clearly shift towards fear.

Maksim Balashevich estimates that the crypto could drop back down to around $75,000, which would represent a decline of nearly 15 % from its current level. This scenario is based on the belief that without an emotional purge of the market, no healthy recovery can emerge. “For a solid bottom to be reached, there must be intense, visible, and widespread fear,” the analyst argues.

Other experts offer a more nuanced view. Some, like Fidelity strategist Jurrien Timmer, remind that previous cycles have often seen a gradual recovery despite a still gloomy sentiment.

Others observe macroeconomic dynamics, such as recent decisions by the Bank of Japan, which could indirectly impact the crypto market by altering global liquidity flows. These differing interpretations illustrate the current uncertainty and strengthen the idea that the market is evolving in a transition zone rather than at a decisive moment.