Six Bitcoin Signals Point To A Possible End of the Bear Market

Is the bear market coming to an end? Many signals observed during previous reversals are beginning to reappear in the market. Denny Galindo, from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Global Investment Office, identified six of them, from the cycle calendar to bitcoin mining difficulty. However, not all are green. Some indicators remain far from the levels reached during past lows. Between historical similarities and persistent anomalies, the market might be entering a renewal without having fully left the bear market yet.

The crypto market calendar approaches previous bear market exits

Across the four complete cycles observed so far, cryptos have followed a sequence of about four years, with three years of bull market followed by a bear market lasting 12 to 14 months. Galindo describes this succession as four seasons of crypto.

The current calendar specifically approaches the period when spring appeared during previous cycles. Historically, this started 17 months before the next halving, or 12 to 14 months after the previous peak. September of this year is therefore 17 months prior to the next halving and 11 months after the last peak.

Another important marker concerns tensions affecting exchanges as a cycle change approaches. Large platforms have closed or failed just before previous crypto springs. This time, BitMEX announced in July a planned closure for this September. Since the low point, a 50% rebound has historically coincided with previous market lows.

In total, the analysis identifies six signals to watch to know if the market is truly changing season :

• The cycle duration, measured relative to the previous peak and the upcoming halving ;
• Tensions on exchanges and institutional players, observed leading up to previous crypto springs ;
• Bitcoin’s pullback, compared to corrections during past bear markets ;
• Mining difficulty, whose decline then rebound have accompanied past cycle changes ;
• Thermocap multiple, measuring bitcoin capitalization relative to the cumulative mining-attributed value of BTC ;
• Price evolution, with the historic threshold of a 50% rebound from the low point.

Various indicators remain far from levels seen in the past

When shifting analysis to bitcoin metrics, the picture becomes less uniform. Previous bear markets led to pullbacks between 77% and 84% below previous peaks. Bitcoin has only lost 53% between October 6, 2025, and June 30, 2026. Galindo believes this correction should be enough to constitute a signal, while remaining significantly less deep than those of prior cycles.

The same caution applies to mining difficulty mining. It has indeed decreased, following historically observed behavior at bear market ends, yet it has not yet rebounded. A similar observation is made for the thermocap multiple. This indicator compares bitcoin capitalization to the cumulative dollar value attributed to BTC at mining time.

Previous bear markets ended with a ratio under 10. During this cycle, its point has only reached 13 times. Various pieces of the historical scenario are thus visible without exactly reproducing past lows.

The next bitcoin cycle could follow a different scenario

Such divergence raises a new question highlighted by Galindo: must bitcoin necessarily repeat its old cyclical mechanics? During the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 cycles, crypto exceeded the prior cycle peak only after the halving. However, the 2024 precedent broke this sequence. Bitcoin thus surpassed its 2021 record one month before the April halving.

In 2020 and 2021, crypto was among the most visible expressions of speculation around disruptive technologies in a high-liquidity environment. Since 2024, artificial intelligence has become the dominant growth narrative. Therefore, Galindo poses a question likely to accompany the next cycle: has AI replaced crypto as the main speculative and technological market theme?

The six metrics thus do not provide a uniform verdict. The calendar shows similarities with previous bear markets, while the pullback, mining difficulty, and thermocap remain out of sync with some past patterns. Two unknowns add to this: bitcoin’s behavior before the next halving and the role now held by AI. The crypto spring may be taking shape; however, Galindo’s analysis chiefly encourages watching for signs rather than announcing its arrival.