Solana Faces Capital Outflows And Slowing On Chain Activity

Warning signals are multiplying around Solana. While SOL price struggles to stabilize above a key technical threshold, derivatives market data show a clear retreat of bullish positions. Meanwhile, on-chain activity is slowing down and network revenues are eroding. As the 80 dollar level, now closely watched by investors, approaches, the question is no longer about a simple technical rebound, but about the very solidity of market support.

Derivatives Markets Signal a Capitulation of Bullish Traders

The behavior of the Solana price reflects a loss of momentum settling in. For several weeks, the market has unsuccessfully tried to reclaim key technical thresholds, maintaining a climate of hesitation. The current sequence follows a marked rejection in mid-January, followed by a sharp drop early February. This inability to rebound sustainably feeds operator caution.

Data from derivatives markets confirm this change of stance. The massive contraction of open positions on futures, combined with unbalanced funding rates, indicates that traders now prefer reducing risk rather than taking new bullish positions. Several quantified indicators illustrate this evolution :

• Repeated failure to climb back above 89 dollars over the last two weeks ;
• Rejection at 145 dollars in mid-January ;
• A drop to 67.60 dollars during the crash on February 6 ;
• A 75 % decrease in SOL futures open interest compared to the peak of 13.5 billion dollars reached five months earlier ;
• Annualized funding rate of short positions at 20 %, a level considered rare and aggressive.

When funding rates remain negative for more than a week, it reflects a strong conviction of short sellers. For comparison, Ethereum’s annualized rate stood at 1 %, below the neutral level of 6 %, without showing a comparable imbalance.

Decline in On-Chain Activity and Dependence on Memecoins

Beyond derivatives, the network’s internal dynamics raise questions. Weekly revenues from decentralized applications on Solana fell to 22.8 million dollars, their lowest level since October 2024. Also, the memecoin launch platform Pump generated 9.1 million dollars over the period, representing 40 % of total network revenues. This concentration highlights the ecosystem’s strong exposure to flows related to memecoins and retail investor activity.

At the same time, investment products reflect a gap in confidence. Solana-backed ETFs total 2.1 billion dollars in assets under management, compared to 15.8 billion dollars for Ethereum, an 86 % difference. The contrast is also seen in revenue structures: the main revenue-generating applications on Ethereum include Sky, Flashbots, and Aave, major infrastructures of decentralized finance. Solana, meanwhile, remains more dependent on speculative enthusiasm.

The 80 dollar threshold now concentrates investors’ attention. Between derivative contraction and activity slowdown, Solana operates in a zone of uncertainty. Some anticipate a marked rebound, even estimating that Solana could double Bitcoin this year. The market, however, awaits tangible signals before deciding.