SpaceX: Elon Musk Expects Government Revenue to Fall Below 5% in 2027

Elon Musk expects a sharp decline in the weight of government contracts in SpaceX’s revenues. On November 6, 2026, the billionaire announced that the U.S. government would represent less than 10% of revenue in the fourth quarter, then less than 5% within a year. This share was still 16.6% in the third quarter. The expansion of artificial intelligence activities largely explains this evolution.

SpaceX wants to bring public revenues below 5%

Elon Musk announced his new forecasts Friday, November 6, on X. This statement comes as SpaceX rapidly develops its commercial activities, especially after its partnership with Anthropic in the field of artificial intelligence.

The announced change directly concerns the company’s finances. In 2025, government contracts represented about 20% of its revenue. Their weight dropped to 16.6% in the third quarter of 2026. Musk now expects less than 10% in the year’s last quarter and less than 5% twelve months later.

SpaceX still works with several federal agencies. NASA notably uses its Crew Dragon capsules to transport astronauts to the International Space Station. The U.S. Department of Defense also entrusts it with military satellite launches.

The company is also involved in the Artemis program, with its Starship vessel designed to transport astronauts to the lunar surface. These contracts do not disappear. The announced decrease concerns their share of total revenues, not necessarily the amounts paid by Washington.

In the third quarter, SpaceX achieved about 14.6 billion dollars in revenue. The 16.6% attributed to federal contracts thus represents nearly 2.42 billion dollars. A year earlier, the corresponding proportion reached 23.9% of about 5.6 billion in revenue, or 1.34 billion dollars. The revenues concerned have therefore increased in absolute value over this period, despite their relatively lower weight.

AI now generates more than space activities

The financial results published in October show the extent of SpaceX’s transformation. In the third quarter of 2026, its revenue grew 161% year-on-year, increasing from 5.6 to 14.6 billion dollars.

Net profit reached 4.4 billion dollars. The Super Intelligence division, dedicated to artificial intelligence and computing infrastructures, generated about 7.56 billion dollars in revenues. Connectivity services, including Starlink, account for 5.2 billion. Traditional space activities bring in about 1.8 billion.

AI now occupies the top position. This growth is mainly based on renting computing power to large technology companies. SpaceX notably operates data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, where demand for computing capacity continues to increase.

The company is also working on space computing infrastructures intended for AI’s future needs. Anthropic plays an important role in this activity. According to Bloomberg, the company behind Claude has become SpaceX’s largest individual client. Financial documents mention an unnamed client representing 34.5% of quarterly revenue, about 5 billion dollars. Bloomberg identifies it as Anthropic.

The group therefore has a major commercial outlet for its computing capabilities. For SpaceX, the growth of AI activities mechanically reduces the proportion of revenues coming from Washington.

One government dependence replaced by another?

The decrease in the weight of public contracts could give SpaceX more financial flexibility. The company would maintain its activities with NASA and the Pentagon while drawing most of its growth from commercial clients.

However, it must manage a new concentration of its revenues. With 34.5% of revenue attributed to a single client, Anthropic now holds a more important position than government contracts combined.

This situation exposes SpaceX to its partner’s commercial decisions and computing needs. Computing contracts can bring in several billion dollars, but their renewal depends notably on demand, financial conditions, and investments required to maintain infrastructures.

SpaceX nevertheless retains other sources of revenue, particularly Starlink and commercial launches. The results of the coming quarters will allow measuring their progress. For Elon Musk, the announced goal remains ambitious: to bring Washington’s contribution below 5% by November 2027, while AI-related activities continue to grow.

SpaceX will also have to develop its own products, especially after the acquisition of Cursor and tensions arising between OpenAI and Anthropic. The company gains financial autonomy from the U.S. government but its growth now depends more on a few large tech clients.