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Traders are placing sizable bets on Bitcoin’s path through 2026 across leading prediction platforms. Activity on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad suggests a market that expects gradual progress rather than a rapid breakout. More than $84 million in combined volume across seven contracts reflects cautious optimism, balanced by consistent hedging against downside risk. While confidence appears to build later in the year, near-term expectations remain restrained.

Polymarket has escalated its dispute with U.S. state regulators by filing a federal lawsuit against Massachusetts, arguing that prediction markets fall under exclusive federal oversight. At the center of the case is whether individual states can restrict event-based contracts already regulated at the federal level. Ultimately, the ruling could determine how prediction markets operate across the United States.

Kalshi saw a sharp rise in trading activity last week, pushing weekly volume to a new high. Data shows the prediction market processed more than $2 billion in trades, placing it well ahead of Polymarket over the same period. Increased demand for sports contracts and broader blockchain access supported the growth.

Polymarket has entered a new phase of expansion as its US relaunch begins after years away from the domestic market. According to recent reports, the platform is moving quickly to bring waitlisted users into its updated app, starting with sports event contracts. Regulatory clearance arrived earlier this year, opening the door for a compliant return.