TD Cowen Warns U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill May Be Delayed Until 2027 as Political Hurdles Grow

Efforts to establish clear rules for the U.S. crypto market are likely to take longer than many industry participants expect. An analysis from TD Cowen indicates that while passage remains possible in the near term, political dynamics in Washington increase the likelihood of delays. Approval may not occur until 2027, with full implementation extending to 2029.

Congress Weighs Delay on Crypto Market Structure Bill as Elections Near

TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, led by managing director Jaret Seiberg, said in a Monday note that Congress has strong political incentives to slow progress. Although a viable path exists for a crypto market structure bill to advance this year, lawmakers may choose to wait, particularly with key elections approaching. Democrats, in particular, may favor delay if they believe control of the House could change after the 2026 midterm elections.

Negotiations, however, have not stalled. Congressional staff from both parties have spent months working through technical language, leaving open the possibility of a faster agreement if political pressure increases. Uncertainty around election outcomes could also push Democrats to compromise sooner rather than later.

Election outcomes are always uncertain, which is why Democrats may cut a deal. That could happen quickly, as staff have been working on the technical language for months.

Jaret Seiberg

Several factors continue to shape the debate over timing:

• Control of Congress after the 2026 midterms remains uncertain.
• Senate rules require bipartisan support to advance legislation.
• Divisions within the Republican Party could limit vote totals.
• Election-year politics tend to discourage major legislative action.
• Implementation timelines can be adjusted to meet political objectives.

Senate Talks on Market Structure Stall Over Conflict-of-Interest Rules

Disagreements over conflict-of-interest provisions remain a central obstacle. Democrats are expected to push for rules barring senior government officials and their families from owning or operating crypto businesses. That group includes President Donald Trump. Seiberg said such provisions would likely face resistance from Trump unless they are delayed for several years after the bill becomes law.

Bloomberg estimated last July that Trump has earned roughly $620 million from crypto-related ventures tied to his family. These include World Liberty Financial, a DeFi and stablecoin project that lists Trump and his three sons as co-founders. Family holdings also include interests in the BTC mining firm American Bitcoin. Lawmakers have also raised concerns about the TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins launched shortly before Trump took office.

One potential compromise would delay the implementation of conflict-of-interest rules for three years after enactment of the bill. That approach would push enforcement beyond the next presidential inauguration, effectively exempting Trump. According to Seiberg, Democrats are unlikely to accept such a deal unless the rest of the legislation is delayed by several years as well, limiting its immediate effect.

Crypto market structure legislation is widely viewed as the next major regulatory step following the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins. A final bill would establish how digital assets are regulated in the U.S., clarify agency oversight responsibilities, and set standards for asset classification. The House passed a version of the bill last year, but momentum has slowed in the Senate, where committees are expected to take up the issue later this year.

Senate Delays Extend Uncertainty for Crypto Firms Awaiting U.S. Market Rules

Passing the bill through the Senate presents another challenge, as it requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Even with unanimous Republican support, at least seven Democratic votes would be needed. In practice, Seiberg said support from eight or nine Democrats may be required, as some Republicans are expected to vote against the measure.

That vote arithmetic gives Democrats a greater ability to delay progress. A postponed vote could shift implementation beyond the next presidential term, allowing regulators appointed by a future administration to shape final rules. Similar delays have occurred before, including with the GENIUS Act, which includes a three-year implementation period.

Key consequences of a delayed timeline include:

• Rules taking effect under a different administration.
• Greater influence for regulatory agencies over final standards.
• Extended uncertainty for the crypto industry.
• Reduced urgency to reach compromise before elections.
• Increased focus on political positioning rather than legislative speed.

Crypto firms generally want the legislation in place as soon as possible, ideally during a Trump administration, and many appear unconcerned about conflict-of-interest provisions. That gap between industry priorities and political incentives continues to drive tension around the bill. Policy analysts broadly expect a crypto market structure bill to pass in 2026, though enforcement may still be several years away.