Glassnode Revives Debate: Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Still Alive?

Despite predictions announcing the death of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, Glassnode’s analysis reveals troubling signals. The recent price movement echoes historical patterns, suggesting that the famous cycle could still dictate market pace. But this time, the stakes are different.

Glassnode defends the traditional Bitcoin cycle theory against skeptics

The on-chain analysis company Glassnode published a report challenging the widely held idea that Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle has disappeared. 

According to its data, the Bitcoin price action echoes prior models, suggesting that despite the rise of institutional investors, the fundamental cyclical mechanism has not yet been broken.

This study comes as Bitcoin goes through a consolidation phase after marking a new all-time high at $124,128 on August 14. 

Since this peak, the crypto has declined by about 8.3%, now trading around $113,940. Far from seeing this as a sign of lasting weakness, Glassnode rather considers this correction part of the traditional cycle logic.

On-chain indicators, however, confirm short-term tensions. Profit-taking by long-term holders — those who have held their bitcoins for more than 155 days — now reach levels “comparable to past euphoric phases.” This distribution movement suggests a market that could be nearing the end of its cycle.

At the same time, institutional demand shows signs of fatigue. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of $975 million over the last four sessions, according to Farside Investors. 

This decline in demand has led to a shift of funds towards more speculative bets: open interest on altcoins briefly reached a record $60 billion before falling back.

The battle of forecasts, October 2025 or extended cycle?

While Glassnode defends the idea that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains relevant, the timing question deeply divides the crypto community. 

Analyst Rekt Capital noted as early as July that following the 2020 model, the market would likely peak in October 2025, about 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

This hypothesis is based on our August 20 technical analysis. Despite a limited weekly correction of 1.5%, volumes remain strong, reaching $48 billion (+34%). 

The underlying trend remains bullish in the medium and long term, although the short term shows fatigue, with momentum neutralized, which could signal a stabilization phase.

Against this cyclical reading, a growing number of experts propose a radically different vision. 

For Matt Hougan, Head of Investments at Bitwise, the Bitcoin cycle “is dead” and the true bullish phase would only arrive in 2026. According to him, the significance of the halving diminishes with each iteration, while monetary policy cycles, notably interest rates, play an increasingly structuring role.

Investor Jason Williams shares this perspective by emphasizing the unprecedented impact of institutional adoption. He recalls that the 100 largest companies hold nearly one million bitcoins. 

According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, publicly traded companies alone hold more than $112 billion worth of BTC. A critical mass that could redefine market rules and weaken the historical logic of cycles.

The debate about the survival of the four-year cycle therefore reflects two opposing visions: one of a market still guided by its past patterns and another of a new era dominated by institutional flows. Bitcoin’s near future will tell if history repeats itself… or if it is written differently.