The Bitcoin Bull Score reaches neutrality: Sign of recovery or just a pause?

Bitcoin sends an unprecedented technical signal since the start of this bear market. The CryptoQuant Bull Score index has just crossed the 50 threshold, finally leaving the red zone to enter neutral territory. Is this the beginning of a real reversal, or simply a respite before another drop?

The Bitcoin Bull Score index rose to 50

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, published a noteworthy analysis on X on April 22. His conclusion is clear: for the first time since the start of this bear market, the Bitcoin Bull Score index has risen to 50, crossing the boundary between the bearish zone and neutral territory.

A number worth pausing over. The index does not only measure price; it aggregates ten distinct metrics: network activity, investor profitability, liquidity, technical and fundamental signals. Reaching 50 means that about half of these signals have become “constructive” again. In other words, the overall picture is improving, even if it remains incomplete.

However, Moreno tempers enthusiasm without delay. He points out a troubling precedent: in March 2022, the Bull Score had already grazed this neutrality threshold for a week before the market resumed its decline. History does not always repeat itself, but it warns.

Because the real bullish zone, according to CryptoQuant’s framework, starts only from 60. As long as the index remains below, bitcoin operates in a delicate in-between: more clearly bearish, but not yet clearly a buy.

A context that cautiously encourages optimism

The current context differs from 2022 in one essential way. In mid-2025, bitcoin traded well above $120,000, with a Bull Score regularly anchored above 60. The deterioration came later, progressively: end of 2025, then early 2026, prices slid toward $60,000 and the index followed, plunging to its lowest levels of the cycle.

Since April, the tide is turning. Bitcoin rises toward $78,000 and the Bull Score regains neutrality at the same time. This convergence is not accidental; it reflects a real improvement in the underlying market conditions, even if they do not yet justify a clear buy signal.

Grayscale goes even further in its optimism. In a note published on April 21, 2026, the company states that bitcoin’s bottom has likely already been hit in February, somewhere between $65,000 and $70,000.

Its key argument: the realized price of recent buyers is around $74,000. These investors are no longer underwater. They have regained equilibrium, and this detail often changes a market’s dynamics. When weak hands stop losing, selling pressure naturally eases.

Neutral does not mean bullish. But after months of red, it is a first concrete step toward exit. The Bull Score at 50, combined with a bitcoin recovering above $78,000, outlines a less fragile market structure. Will the index sustainably cross the 60 threshold, or will it fall back as in March 2022? The coming weeks will provide the answer.