VanEck highlights historically favorable conditions for Bitcoin

Bitcoin exceeded 79,000 dollars on Thursday for the first time since January, rekindling investors’ appetite. Behind this rebound, VanEck analysts identify several technical indicators that, historically, have preceded significant increases. But how far can this momentum go?

Bitcoin reaches its highest level since January

In a report published Friday, analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush from VanEck paint a particularly optimistic picture of the Bitcoin market. 

The two experts scrutinized the on-chain data of the leading crypto and draw an unambiguous conclusion: the technical conditions today closely resemble those that preceded strong increases in the past.

First signal examined: the hash rate. It currently stands at 985.5 EH/s on a 30-day moving average, a decrease of 7.5% compared to the all-time high of 1,065.7 EH/s reached at the end of November. Over the last five months, the network has experienced no fewer than three consecutive decline episodes. The most recent ended on April 15, after 16 days of pressure and a maximum drop of 6.7%.

However, it is precisely the history behind these declines that is striking. Of seven similar episodes recorded, six were followed by a price increase within 90 days, with a median gain of 37.7%. A ratio hard to ignore.

Beyond the hash rate, a second indicator draws attention: the funding rate. It fell to -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023, sending a signal well-known to markets. 

Indeed, since 2020, periods of negative funding have generated an average return of 11.5% over 30 days, compared to only 4.5% in normal times. Even better, when this rate dropped below -5%, gains jumped to 19.4% over 30 days, and up to 70% over 180 days.

A market deeply repositioning

Beyond technical signals, the behavior of institutional investors also deserves attention. After five consecutive weeks of capital outflows, representing $4 billion evaporated between January 24 and February 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown positive net flows in six of the last seven weeks. A clear reversal, reflecting renewed confidence among major market players.

On the volume side, transfers reach $48.5 billion daily, the 81st historical percentile. They, however, mark a 5% decrease over one month, a sign of easing volatility, and of a market catching its breath before, perhaps, a new momentum.

In this context, on-chain data relayed by Santiment add an additional layer of interest. Large whales show a marked resurgence of activity in recent days, as Bitcoin approaches $80,000. This type of behavior has often preceded significant price movements in the past, although no indicator guarantees a direction.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $78,100, slightly down 0.8% on the day. However, its increase exceeds 11% over 30 days, according to CoinGecko.

The convergence of these signals, recovering hash rate, negative funding, return of institutional investors and whale activity, paints a picture few analysts dare to ignore. The question remains whether the market will be able to transform these indicators into a new lasting bullish phase, or whether caution will prevail amid the macroeconomic uncertainties still looming over global markets.