XRP Profit-to-loss Ratio Flashes A Warning Signal For Traders

The crypto market regularly experiences phases of euphoria and disappointment, but certain indicators help identify moments when investor sentiment truly breaks down. For XRP, the latest data published by Glassnode indicate that such a breaking point may be underway. The on-chain analysis company observes both an explosion in loss sales and a sharp contraction in network activity, reflecting a profound change in market dynamics.

XRP Investors Now Realize More Losses Than Gains

Observations from Glassnode show a significant deterioration in the behavior of XRP holders. To quantify this evolution, the company refers to the “Realized Profit to Loss Ratio”, an indicator comparing realized profits and losses during token movements. Based on a 90-day moving average, this ratio has dropped to 0.38. In clear terms, investors are now realizing far more losses than gains.

The key figures provided by Glassnode are as follows :

• The realized profit/loss ratio over 90 days : 0.38 ;
• The market equilibrium level : 1 ;
• The peak recorded during the 2025 euphoria : 50 ;
• Investors currently realize 0.38 dollars in profit for every 1 dollar of realized loss ;
• Glassnode estimates that the dynamics observed during the previous rally have completely reversed.

This situation is radically different from that observed at the speculative peak reached in 2025. At that time, the ratio had reached 50, meaning a market where realized profits far outweighed loss sales. Glassnode summarizes this regime change with an unambiguous formula: “this dynamic has completely reversed.”

The contrast between these two periods highlights the extent of the change within the XRP market.

Glassnode Identifies the Characteristic Signs of Capitulation

The current weakness of the ratio is of particular importance to analysts. With this type of metric, the level 1 is a balance point between realized profits and losses. When the indicator is above this threshold, investors generally have more gains than losses. Conversely, a value below 1 indicates predominance of realized losses.

Glassnode states that, with a ratio limited to 0.38, the market is experiencing a particularly marked capitulation phase. The company explains that “this ratio so far from the equilibrium threshold of 1 shows a market where most investors moving their tokens do so at a loss, a typical characteristic of intense capitulation.” This reading shows that a significant portion of holders who give up or sell their XRP now accept leaving the market under unfavorable conditions.

This type of behavior generally appears when investor confidence deteriorates permanently. Operators therefore give up hoping for a quick rebound and rather choose to reduce their exposure. Thus, the data observed by Glassnode reflect a psychological evolution in the market, distinct from the simple daily price fluctuations.

XRP Network Activity Slows Sharply After Euphoria

Glassnode’s concerns go beyond investor behavior. Network usage data also show a clear slowdown in activity. To measure this trend, one must observe the evolution of transaction fees paid on the XRP blockchain.

The published figures show a spectacular drop. The 90-day moving average of fees fell from nearly 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to only 500 XRP by June 9, 2026. This drop represents a reduction of 91.5%. According to Glassnode, this movement marks a sharp decline in transactional demand associated with the previous speculative phase.

Such a reduction in fees is not only a reflection of the technical activity level of the network. It is also an indicator of users’ interest in the ecosystem. A strong drop in transactions often indicates a decrease in exchanges, transfers, or economic operations performed on the blockchain. Glassnode thus judges that the organic demand seen during the expansion period has largely evaporated.

Combining these different signals provides a very contrasting picture for XRP. On one hand, when investors move their assets, they register more losses than gains. On the other hand, the level of economic activity on the network shows a sharp decline compared to those reached during the euphoria phase. These indicators do not allow predicting future market developments but reflect participants’ current sentiment quite precisely. One can therefore ask whether this capitulation phase is just an intermediate stage in the XRP cycle or the beginning of a more significant market restructuring period.