Mukesh Ambani, the richest man in India, trapped by Trump’s trade war

Which friend will Donald Trump not betray with the powers at his disposal? Elon Musk has already suffered from it, victim of an abrupt reversal. Today, it is Mukesh Ambani who faces the consequences of the policies of the current American president. Reliance Industries, flagship of Indian capitalism and Modi’s economic arm, finds itself at the heart of a geopolitical storm. Accused by the United States of “large-scale oil arbitrage,” Ambani now embodies an uncomfortable figure in the economic war unleashed by Trump.

When Ambani embodies patriotic capitalism in India’s forge

Mukesh Ambani, author of a crypto project on Polygon, is not an outsider. He embodies a winning national economy, pillar of Modi’s project. Reliance, its refineries, its omnipresence in distribution and telecom: everything aligns with the dream of a powerful India. Yet, Trump decided that this dream was suspicious, claiming that Indian conglomerates, including Reliance, profited from the war.

Advisor Peter Navarro and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not mince words, denouncing “politically connected energy titans” profiting from the war. And Ambani is targeted.

According to Kpler, between January and June 2025, 141.57 million barrels of Russian crude were imported by Reliance via a ten-year contract with Rosneft. Economic necessity obliges, Trump responds with doubled tariffs of 50% on this oil. 

Ambani has become a symbol of an awkward private-public rapprochement in today’s geopolitical game.

Oil arbitrage: $16 billion in profits… and a thunderclap in the global economy

The word hits hard: $16 billion of “excess profits” — according to Bessent — were amassed thanks to the purchase of discounted Russian oil, resold as refined product on the global market. Reliance, assisted by Nayara Energy, exported $60 billion of petroleum products in 2024-2025, including $15 billion to the European Union in just six months. 

Reliance paid an average of $71.47 per barrel for Russian oil, against $75.5 for Saudi Arabia: a $4 saving per barrel on refines; just in Q1-Q2 2025, that represents a considerable margin. It is this logic of “Indian arbitrage” that Trump condemned, accusing these profiteers of pulling the strings of an economy in full geopolitical chaos.

Ambani was not off the radar after all: the Indian government gave no official response, but a close source ensures that behind the scenes these accusations are seen as “political theater.” Reliance intends to continue diversifying its supplies while playing it tight.

Global ambitions put to the test by economic diplomacy… and Trump

Reliance is not only petrochemicals: it invests in retail, telecom (Jio), tech. Meta is already a partner in its digital branch. But today, these global ambitions face tension with the United States. Ambani has few assets overseas, apart from a stake in the Mandarin Oriental in New York.

Yet, implicit threats of financial sanctions or restrictions on access to American markets hover. And in the geopolitical duel, Ambani does not have the weight of China, which remains largely unsanctioned despite its higher volumes of Russian imports.

Key facts:

• Reliance imported nearly 142 million barrels from Russia in six months;
• 36% of India’s oil needs come from Russia in 2025 (almost zero in 2022);
• Oil exports (RIL + Nayara): $60 billion, including 25% to the EU;
• Average Russian crude price: $71.47/b; Saudi: $75.5/b;
• Tariffs imposed by Trump: up to 50%.

Ambani could emerge politically and financially weakened. India’s “economy” (a pro-CBDC country) depends on diplomatic diversification, but this trade war led by Trump shakes the very pillars of an Indian model centered around private giants with close ties to the State.

On the Musk and Trump front, the story is now old. Musk was ready to challenge the system by creating an “America Party,” apparently sacrificed on the altar of pragmatism and politics. He accepted to temporarily give up his political party project, preferring to preserve his activities and ties — notably with JD Vance — rather than confront Trump head-on.