Bitcoin Set to Join Gold on Central Bank Balance Sheets as Volatility Eases: Deutsche Bank

Institutional use of Bitcoin (BTC) is growing, and global regulations around digital assets are becoming clearer. Against this backdrop, Deutsche Bank has projected that central banks may begin adding Bitcoin to their reserves within the next five years, placing it alongside gold rather than in competition with it.

Stable Markets Could Bring Bitcoin Into Reserves

According to the bank’s research, gold will continue to hold its position as the dominant official reserve. Bitcoin, however, is expected to expand through private and alternative reserves before making its way into central bank balance sheets, a process that could become more visible by 2030. The pace of this shift will depend on how the market matures under clearer regulation and more stable conditions.

Volatility has been a major concern for BTC. Its price has historically swung sharply, making it less suitable as a reliable reserve. Deutsche Bank, however, believes these fluctuations should ease as regulation becomes clearer. The bank explained, “With regulatory efforts accelerating – from the US to MICA in the EU and the FCA’s crypto roadmap in the UK – we expect Bitcoin’s volatility to decline as more transactions are conducted, ensuring deeper liquidity in the markets.”

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Maturity

The report refers to last month, August, as evidence of this shift. During that period, Bitcoin’s price reached a record high above $123,500, while its 30-day volatility fell to a historic low of 23%. This was unusual, as in previous years, sharp price gains were typically accompanied by extreme swings, driven largely by speculation.

Deutsche Bank interprets this development as the beginning of a separation between price growth and volatility. In practical terms, it means the asset may now be capable of rising in value without the disruptive swings of the past. If that trend continues, Bitcoin could follow a steadier growth path that makes it more attractive to both investors and central banks.

This combination suggests we may be witnessing the start of a gradual decoupling between Bitcoin’s spot prices and volatility as the crypto’s integration into portfolios is maturing. It could signal a more sustainable trend beyond previous instances of short-term market speculation.

Deutsche Bank

Bitcoin in U.S. Reserve Plans

Following signs of market stability, the discussion around Bitcoin’s role in official reserves is not limited to research papers:

• The Trump administration in the United States has explored the idea of creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• Building on this, Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the BITCOIN Act, proposing that the government purchase 200,000 Bitcoins each year for five years, totalling one million coins.
• These developments show that Bitcoin’s potential as a reserve asset is moving from theoretical analysis into active policy consideration.

Dollar’s Central Role Remains

Despite its positive outlook on Bitcoin, Deutsche Bank emphasised that neither Bitcoin nor gold is likely to take the place of the U.S. dollar. The dollar is expected to remain the primary reserve asset and the main medium of exchange worldwide. The bank underlined that governments are expected to regulate digital assets in ways that prevent them from weakening national currencies.

Deutsche Bank has previously described Bitcoin as a modern version of gold, even calling it the “21st century gold.” Its latest analysis builds on this idea, positioning BTC as a digital asset that can stand beside gold in the reserve system while the dollar continues as the foundation of global finance.