Bitcoin: The Market Calms Down, Transfer Volume Falls To 52 Billion

Recently, Bitcoin has resumed its favorite game: the emotional yo-yo. During and after the “12-Day War” between Israel and Iran, its price spun around. Since then, calm has set in. The market is entering a consolidation phase, and the queen of cryptos is showing less brilliant signs. Activity is sluggish, interest is slowing down: the indicators send mixed messages. We watch the screens closely, but the magic is fading… for now.

Less noise on the chain: Bitcoin becomes discreet on the network

The bitcoin news: since the end of May, the transfer volume has dropped from $76 billion to $52 billion. That is a clear decline of 32%. This metric, which measures transactional activity, shows that investors are easing off. A similar cooling had already marked previous consolidations. Each time, the pattern repeats: transfer peak, then return to normal. The logic seems cyclical.

Even more troubling: this time, no rebound in spot volume accompanied the recent rise of BTC. According to Glassnode, this divergence accentuates the lack of speculative intensity. In plain terms, few traditional traders participated.

It is the derivatives market, with its extreme leverage, that has driven the movement. But when the steam dissipates, leverage effects become explosive.

Another data point reinforces the picture: the gradual decline of volumes on futures contracts. We are talking about a widespread decline, which aligns with the slowdown of the entire crypto sector. A known but dreaded mechanism.

Powell, weak dollar, and bullish patterns: the underpinnings of a BTC ready for takeoff?

Although bitcoin seems to be pausing, it might just be a step back before a jump. First, the macro context gives wings to non-sovereign assets. The US dollar has lost 12% since January, its lowest level in 3 years. Morgan Stanley anticipates a further 9% drop. Trump criticizes Powell and wants fresh blood at the Fed. Result: speculation about a monetary reversal is swelling. Fewer rates, more liquidity, thus… breath for bitcoin.

Technically, the signals are becoming intriguing. The BTC price stays above its 100-day exponential moving average, a solid defensive cushion. Better yet, a “bull flag” has formed on the charts. According to historical data, this kind of pattern has appeared 19 times. In 15 cases, it preceded a price rise.

Some numbers to set the scene:

• $52 billion in transfer volume, down 32%;
• $107,393: last peak reached this week;
• -12% on the DXY since January;
• 15 out of 19 bull flag cases ended with an increase;
• No spot volume peak accompanied the rally.

For some, this calm signals the beginning of a more mature cycle. For others, it is the calm before the storm.

Analysts are clear: the trend is accelerating. They now see bitcoin aiming for an all-time high never seen before. This dynamic, combined with a changing macro context, could well redraw the peaks of the crypto market. Patience. The springboard might already be set.