11B Bitcoin Options Expire Friday: Will $79.5K Hold?

About 11 billion dollars of bitcoin options expire this Friday, October 30 on Deribit, two days after the Fed’s status quo. At the time of writing this article, the BTC price is hovering around 80,000 $ and the 79,500 $ zone serves as a test: will it hold when these contracts disappear?

What expires Friday: 11 billion dollars of bitcoin options on Deribit

Deribit is the main crypto options platform. On Friday at 08:00 UTC (9:00 in Paris), about 135,000 BTC of contracts will be settled there. That represents 10.9 billion dollars in notional value, according to data relayed by InsigtX. Estimates vary however from 10.7 to 12.2 billion depending on tracking tools.

This monthly expiration weighs about a third of the open interest, meaning all the contracts still open on Deribit. An option gives the right to buy (call) or sell (put) bitcoin at a fixed price in advance. The put/call ratio stands around 0.53. Moreover, calls dominate with about 89,000 contracts versus 47,000 puts.

Indeed, this imbalance appears bullish. Nevertheless, it must be nuanced. The largest call positions are on strikes of 90,000, 95,000 and 100,000 $. With bitcoin at 80,000 $, these contracts are thus very likely to expire worthless.

Max pain at 78,000 $: a landmark, not a price forecast for bitcoin

“Max pain” refers to the price at which bitcoin options buyers, taken collectively, would lose the least at expiration. For this Friday, October 30, 2026, crypto analysts mostly place it at 78,000 $ with a range from 76,000 to 79,000 $.

This level is however not a price target. It reminds us that it results from a calculation on the open interest. It does not indicate that bitcoin will move towards it. Its interest lies elsewhere: it is located below the current price, where market makers’ hedges are also found. The sensitivity of these hedges is concentrated precisely between 75,000 and 82,000 $. This can amplify the bitcoin price movements in this zone.

79,500 $ support: levels to watch on the crypto market

On the chart, the 79,500 $ support corresponds to the bottom of a zone ranging from 79,500 to 80,500 $. Just below, 79,221 $ marks the lowest point of October 24. It held firm during three new pullbacks this week. Follow then the max pain at 78,000 $, then the 76,264–76,478 $ zone which combines the September 2 low and the 200-day moving average.

Above, resistance is located between 81,300 and 82,800 $. Santiment envisions:

• a return towards 82,500–84,000 $ if bitcoin remains above 80,000 $;
• a bearish risk towards 75,000 $ below 79,000 $.

Bitfinex, for its part, estimates the options implied range at 77,800–83,800 $.

In both cases, one signal remains ambiguous: the volatilily index DVOL from Deribit. It dropped from 38 to 36 in two days. This means that bitcoin traders pay a slightly lower price for protection, despite the size of the expiration.

After the expiration: midterms, position rollover and Fed

Once the contracts are settled, the associated hedges no longer need to be maintained. That does not guarantee a drop in volatility. In this sense, ETHNews points out that traders can roll over their positions to November contracts. Some bitcoin option sellers might therefore wait for the US elections on November 3.

Another expiration to watch closely: the Fed meeting of December 8 and 9. Already, several specialized media mention a high probability of a rate hike: between 80 and 84%. On October 16, this had collapsed to 13% on Polymarket.

In any case, the expiration of BTC options this Friday weighs heavily in volume. The test is now played between 78,000 and 80,500 $, a level to watch closely to anticipate the next bitcoin momentum.