57% on Kalshi Bet Gemini Will Be the Top AI Model in 2025

Prediction markets are shaping a new landscape for artificial intelligence. While ChatGPT seemed unshakable, Kalshi data reveals a surprising upheaval: 57% of bettors now wager on Gemini to become the best text-based AI model by the end of 2025.

Gemini leads its AI rivals in Kalshi bets

Gemini’s breakthrough on Kalshi is no coincidence. Google has multiplied strategic updates in recent months, attracting investors’ attention and strengthening its credibility against the competition.

On August 15, the Mountain View group unveiled a series of innovations: a “storybook” mode, a reinforced reasoning model, and temporary conversations, designed to protect user privacy.

The results were quickly felt. Within twenty-four hours, positions in favor of Gemini jumped from 48.1% to 57%, creating a significant gap with its competitors.

The launch of Gemini 2.5, presented as a “thinking” AI, capable of deep analysis before responding, further strengthened this momentum. 

With a processing capacity of 1 to 2 million tokens and expanded multimodality (text, image, audio, video, code), the model directly targets developers and companies seeking performance and reliability.

The figures confirm this rise. Gemini 2.5 ranks at the top of human preferences according to LMArena and scores 63.8% on SWE-Bench Verified, a particularly strong score in coding. A technical excellence that contrasts with the difficulties faced by OpenAI.

Indeed, the controversial launch of ChatGPT-5 sparked a wave of criticism, forcing Sam Altman to publicly defend his product against a growingly skeptical user community.

This prediction scenario will be finalized on December 31. The winning model will entitle bettors to payout, and LM Arena will verify the result. To date, the recorded volume already reaches 7.4 million dollars.

The battle of technological giants intensifies

While Google strengthens its positions, its competitors stumble. Grok, xAI’s model, is going through a turbulent phase. Accused of political bias, it had to withdraw several controversial posts, some deemed scandalous after appearing to praise Adolf Hitler.

These missteps, widely reported by international media, seriously undermined user trust and led to a decrease in its rating on Kalshi, dropping from 18.8% to 15%.

Conversely, ChatGPT maintains a solid position. Although declining in predictions, it still holds 43% of the overall market share, proof of the loyalty of its community and the effectiveness of a proven interface.

But the dynamics are changing rapidly. New players are disrupting the established order, as seen with DeepSeek. Its Prover 2 model, specialized in mathematics, shows a spectacular increase of +195%, redefining the balances of a sector in full effervescence.

Beyond technology, a battle for data and regulation

Competition no longer limits itself to language models: it now extends to access to strategic data. The surprise offer of 34.5 billion dollars made by Perplexity to buy Chrome, Google’s flagship browser, is a perfect example. 

Even OpenAI is closely following the case, confirming that controlling online information flows has become a decisive lever to train and refine next-generation AIs.

In this boiling context, regulators are doubling vigilance. G7 antitrust authorities are considering measures to contain dominant positions, while Google and Meta already face legal proceedings that could slow down their ambitions. 

These regulatory pressures remind us that the AI battle is not only technological: it is also institutional and political.

Thus, Kalshi bets reflect much more than mere speculative enthusiasm. They highlight a real shift in global AI power relations. Gemini has undeniable technical assets, but its fate will depend as much on regulation as on geopolitics and user trust.

By 2025, the race for AI could well take the shape of a new technological cold war, where every misstep will come at a high price.