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An Alternative Theory Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run Earlier Than Expected

Fri 24 Nov 2023 ▪ 3 min of reading ▪ by Fenelon L.
Getting informed Event

An alternative theory regarding Bitcoin cycles predicts that the next crypto market peak will arrive earlier than expected, potentially mid-2025 instead of late 2025. This theory challenges the standard model of halvings, which has accurately predicted the peaks of the last three cycles.

Clocks that illustrate the price of Bitcoin over time

Promising Signs, Yet Uncertain

According to the classic Bitcoin theory, based on the halving events, the next cycle peak should occur around November 2025. However, an alternative theory presented by CryptoCon suggests that this peak could happen much earlier, potentially mid-2025. Here is the technical chart on which it bases its theory.

The alternative theory predicts a Bitcoin bull run sooner than expected
Technical analysis based on the alternative theory regarding the future Bitcoin peak. Source: CryptoCon

According to this analysis, certain technical indicators are beginning to show signs that are consistent with an accelerated cycle. Notably, the monthly stochastic has just peaked, which normally only occurs during bull run phases. Moreover, each time it touches the red line on this stochastic, it was approximately one year before the final Bitcoin peak in the previous cycles.

However, the recent price developments have not yet confirmed this potential shift in the cycle’s timing. Only the creation of new all-time highs (ATH) in the coming months would provide empirical validation of a shortened timeline.

The Original Bitcoin Theory Remains Valid Until Proven Otherwise

The standard theory of halvings, which predicts a peak around November 28, 2025, has proven to be very reliable since its formulation. It had accurately anticipated the market bottom in November 2022, the best buying prices of 2023, and the first intermediate peak in July 2023.

And so far, all its predictions have been accurate: the market bottom in November 2022, the best buying prices of 2023, the first peak in July 2023, the return to a median price of $34,500. In short, as long as there is no indication of a trend reversal, this theory stays well-founded.

In conclusion, this alternative theory deserves attention, but still requires empirical validation before it can dethrone the standard model, which remains pertinent for now. The future will tell us if a shortened cycle will indeed lead to higher prices mid-2025.

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Fenelon L. avatar
Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.