Luc Jose A.

Bitcoin has just erased part of its rebound after a peak at 82281 dollars on September 4. Indeed, the price dropped back to around 79000 dollars, a decline of nearly 4% in a few hours. The daily trend remains favorable, but short-term indicators signal a loss of momentum. It is the maintenance of the support located around 78500 dollars that will now determine whether this decline remains temporary or invalidates the recent bullish breakout.

Bitcoin has just briefly surpassed 82000 dollars. It thus crosses its 50-week moving average. This threshold accompanied the end of four of the five previous comparable bear markets. However, the signal remains incomplete, as it must be confirmed by a weekly close. A failure below the 81000 to 86000 dollar zone would place the supports at 71800 and 62000 dollars back at the center of trading.

American Bitcoin ETFs attracted $101.15 million on September 2nd. This rebound comes after an outflow of $236.5 million the previous day. Ethereum and XRP ETFs ended positive streaks that had captured $1.62 billion and $170 million respectively. At the same time, Solana products also closed the session in the red. These movements reveal a temporary rotation of capital towards Bitcoin rather than a general withdrawal by institutional investors.

The US trade deficit reached 88.6 billion dollars in July, a high since March 2025. Indeed, the gap evolved by 24.4% in thirty days despite the tariffs established by Donald Trump. This increase comes both from a rebound in imports and a decline in exports. Moreover, investments in artificial intelligence justify a significant part of the movement, as American companies acquired more computers, computer accessories, and semiconductors abroad.

After reaching a peak at the end of 2025, the computing power that secures the Bitcoin network is experiencing an unusual decline. Rapha Zagury, CEO of Twenty One Capital, calls this situation the first "bear market of the hashrate." This decline mainly reflects the deterioration of mining profitability. However, the phenomenon is amplified by artificial intelligence, as many operators are now dedicating their energy infrastructures to long-term computing contracts.

Since August 7, the price of gold touched its lowest level before rebounding around 4331 dollars per ounce. The conflict between the United States and Iran could not support the safe haven. It caused oil prices to rise, consolidated inflation fears, and increased the likelihood of a US rate hike. The evolution of the dollar and bond yields thus weighs more on the precious metal than the search for security.

Net inflows have been recorded in US XRP ETFs for eleven consecutive sessions. This streak, starting on August 18, brought them nearly 170 million dollars and raised their cumulative flows to 1.68 billion since their launch. Meanwhile, Q2 publications position Goldman Sachs as the leading known institutional investor. However, these two statistics do not cover the same period and do not allow linking recent flows to the American bank.

Bitcoin started September below 78000 dollars after a 25% rise in August, its best monthly performance since November 2024. Indeed, this entry into the month called "Rektember" revives an unfavorable seasonality. Bitcoin loses on average about 3% in September since 2013. In 2026, the main risk however does not come from the calendar but from the Federal Reserve. Markets now anticipate a possible rate increase starting September 16.

The exchange Binance recorded 15.7 billion dollars in net asset inflows during August. This is a record according to Binance Research. Indeed, the exchange platform attracted more than 75% of the positive flows recorded by the main centralized exchanges. This trend coincides with a monthly increase of over 20% in bitcoin. However, it does not mean that 15.7 billion dollars were automatically used to acquire BTC. Deposits consider various cryptos and correspond to different strategies.

The number of addresses holding at least one million dollars in bitcoins increased by 10.4% during the month of August. According to available statistics, it rose from 111846 to 123482. This increase accompanies the monthly rebound of more than 20% of BTC. However, it does not mean that 11636 people became millionaires, because an address does not necessarily equate to a single investor.

Historically, the month of September represents the least favorable period for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 undergoes an average correction of 0.7% and closes higher in only 44% of cases since 1950. This seasonality is associated with high bond yields, U.S. public debt exceeding 40 trillion dollars, and questions about the profitability of investments in artificial intelligence this year. However, history does not directly predict a decline.

Michael Saylor's company has just resumed its bitcoin acquisitions, but at a price that raises questions. Strategy has just bought 4603 BTC at 80318 each for 369.7 million dollars after about two months of absence. However, the company had sold several thousand bitcoins a few weeks earlier at a significantly lower price. Thus, this market return is not a simple resumption of accumulation, but it provides insight into the financial arrangements that now mark this group's bitcoin strategy, between capital raises, liquidity management, and share buybacks.

During the week ending August 28, American XRP ETFs attracted 110.49 million dollars. For observers, this is their best weekly performance since the beginning of the year. Also, it is their first result above 100 million dollars since December 2025. Indeed, cumulative inflows now approach a record 1.66 billion dollars. However, this demand did not prevent XRP from falling below 1.40 dollars after its recent rebound to 1.70 dollars.