Luc Jose A.

Bitcoin could very well continue its trajectory despite the blocking of the Clarity Act in the Senate. After the failure of the closure procedure, the probabilities of the bill's adoption this year dropped from 15% to 5% on Polymarket. Bitcoin therefore retreated towards 75,000 dollars at the same time, without any direct link being established between the two movements. A paradox emerges behind this political setback. While Washington is still trying to clarify the crypto market rules, bitcoin already has many major regulatory achievements in the United States.

China no longer settles for gold alone, but is building the infrastructure of a new monetary order. After 22 consecutive months of acquiring the yellow metal, Beijing would be consolidating the bridges between gold and yuan, while its exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds is declining. We are therefore witnessing the beginnings of a "Yuan-gold" standard likely to reduce dependence on the dollar.

Is the bear market coming to an end? Many signals observed during previous reversals are beginning to reappear in the market. Denny Galindo, from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Global Investment Office, identified six of them, from the cycle calendar to bitcoin mining difficulty. However, not all are green. Some indicators remain far from the levels reached during past lows. Between historical similarities and persistent anomalies, the market might be entering a renewal without having fully left the bear market yet.

The Fed returns to monetary tightening after more than three years without an increase. Indeed, the US central bank raised its rates by 25 basis points, bringing their range to 3.75% - 4.00%, a first since July 2023. This decision is motivated by persistently high inflation, yet it did not automatically shake bitcoin. Despite a spike in volatility after the announcement, BTC stabilizes around 76200 dollars. Between monetary tightening and crypto market resistance, the Fed's decision now raises the question of the trajectory of rates.

This Tuesday, September 15, the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, with 49 votes against 50, while 60 were needed. After a year of negotiations, political disagreements, mainly around Donald Trump's crypto interests, thwarted the bill. This immediately shook crypto stocks on Wall Street. Can the CLARITY Act still be saved? Has Washington just indefinitely postponed the adoption of a federal framework for cryptos?

A few hours before the Fed decision, more than a dozen banks are betting on a 25 basis point rate hike, an outcome currently credited with an 87.3% probability by the market. The main causes are more persistent inflation than expected and an oil price above 100 dollars. Faced with such a tightening of expectations, BTC is trading around 76000 dollars, after having exceeded 79000 dollars. The verdict on Wednesday, September 16, should reshuffle the cards.

Grayscale wants to shift crypto investment from a standalone product to a ready-to-use portfolio. The manager launched, on September 14, four models intended for financial advisors, built from several crypto-exposed ETPs. Weighting based on capitalization, quarterly rebalancing, asset cap: the offer provides an allocation framework without transferring the investment decision to Grayscale. A way to facilitate the integration of cryptos into wealth management while leaving advisors responsible for the final choice for their clients.

After twelve months of caution, Bitcoin options traders change direction. Since August 20, they pay more to bet on a BTC rise than to protect against a drop, an unprecedented shift in a year. The signal comes while bitcoin trades around $78,278, far from its peak above $126,000 in October 2025. Between dominance of call options, increase in futures positions, and bets concentrated under $100,000, the derivatives market shows renewed but still measured optimism.

During the shortened week of September 8, U.S. crypto ETFs recorded nearly $263 million in net outflows. The positive gathering of products related to Ether, XRP, and Solana was masked by withdrawals concentrated on Bitcoin ETFs.

According to a new statement by Donald Trump, Iranian oil would become a lasting objective of the American presence. The president mentions a US presence in Iran modeled on Venezuela, without presenting any agreement or precise schedule.

Ethereum’s rally pushes Ether’s growth to nearly 60.6% since July 1st. Only the third quarter of 2025 performed better, yet the ranking remains provisional until September 30th.

The inclusive growth of the BRICS could allow emerging countries and their populations to benefit optimally from the global economy. Such an ambition goes beyond wealth redistribution, however the commitments made in New Delhi remain difficult to measure.

After a 24% gain in two weeks, BTC stopped its progression and currently stagnates around 77000 dollars. According to CryptoQuant, the momentum remains bullish; however, its confirmation depends on a precise threshold: 81700 dollars, the level of the 365-day moving average. However, before reaching it, the market must still absorb a significant concentration of supply. And beyond that, two new resistances already await bitcoin at 83600 and 88700 dollars.