Bitcoin : After the Rate Cut, Traders Prepare for an Explosive 2026

The recent Fed rate cut has reignited speculation in the crypto market. Yet, bitcoin traders are now targeting 2026, with ambitious goals at $130,000 and $180,000 in the first quarter, rather than an immediate rebound at the end of the year.

Bitcoin Traders Temper Their Expectations for a “Santa rally“

After the recent Fed rate cut, data shows a record concentration of call options for March 2026, with strikes at $130,000 and $180,000. Additionally, the $100,000 strike for December 2025 dominates open interest, with 20,900 contracts, including 18,360 calls, i.e., 88% of the activity. This trend reflects anticipation of a gradual rise rather than an immediate rally.

Analysts believe the rebound potential is limited to $99,000 by the end of 2025 due to reduced liquidity and declining volatility. Bitcoin, currently around $89,500, has fallen 5.5% from its post-Fed peak of $94,267. Traders therefore favor patient accumulation for 2026.

Strategies like long call condors and bull call spreads dominate, indicating confidence in a measured rise. Institutions such as BlackRock and Grayscale strengthen this dynamic by massively accumulating bitcoin via their ETFs.

The Fed, a New Major Influence on the Crypto Market?

The Fed’s decision to buy $40 billion of Treasury bills per month aims to maintain liquidity in the banking system. This maneuver, though technical, indirectly supports risky assets such as bitcoin. Traders now watch the Fed’s upcoming statements, as any indication of prolonged easing in 2026 could trigger a new wave of purchases. As Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, believes:

Powell’s suggestion of a pause in rate cuts after December reduces political uncertainty and fosters a more stable crypto adoption long-term. Markets gain conviction when monetary direction is clear, encouraging traders to favor assets like Bitcoin rather than speculative altcoins.

A paradox persists: despite inflation still above 2%, the Fed favors support for employment, which reassures crypto markets. Current strategies, like long call condors, reflect anticipation of gradual increase but not a disorderly rally. According to Michael Saylor, banks are quietly integrating bitcoin, thus strengthening long-term confidence.

2025, a Mixed Year-End for an Explosive Bitcoin in 2026?

Bitcoin experienced a volatile 2025, peaking at $126,000 in October, followed by a correction below $90,000 in November. Traders now focus on patient accumulation in view of a 2026 rebound. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded record inflows, with more than $21 billion since Q3 2025.

The catalysts for 2026 include potential Fed monetary easing, growing institutional adoption, and a stable geopolitical context. Some analysts forecast bitcoin at $250,000 in 2026, subject to stability. Others agree on potential of $130,000 to $180,000 in Q1 2026. The coming months will be crucial to confirm these forecasts. 

Bitcoin traders have clearly indicated their strategy: 2025 ends without a “Santa rally“, but with methodical preparation for an explosive 2026. Targets at $130,000 and $180,000 thus reflect confidence in monetary policies and institutional adoption. The question is no longer whether BTC will reach these levels, but when.