Bitcoin and Gold, a Strategic Duel That Divides Analysts

The recent fall of gold in a tense geopolitical context unsettles certainties and fuels increasingly fierce debates. This movement is surprising because gold is supposed to thrive when the world wobbles and reference points collapse abruptly. Yet, bitcoin does not clearly establish itself as a dominant alternative, despite its image as a modern asset. Between gold and bitcoin, the lines are shifting, and investors’ convictions are beginning to seriously waver.

Gold and Bitcoin Do Not Diverge by Chance: A Revealed Structural Fracture

First, the divergence between gold and bitcoin is not due to a simple technical movement or an isolated market reaction. It reflects a deeper fracture, directly linked to the nature of the buyers that dominate each asset today.

According to Stephen Coltman, macro head at 21Shares, gold is mainly held by central banks and states. Conversely, bitcoin remains largely in the hands of individuals, which completely changes its behavior.

He clearly explains:

Physical gold currently plays a more important geopolitical strategic role, as the preferred asset of states seeking to store wealth away from rival powers. This means it reacts more to the deterioration of international relations. 

Next, this opposition reveals a brutal reality: gold and bitcoin no longer follow the same rules.

Strategic Gold, Vital Bitcoin: Two Uses of Capital That Do Not Replace Each Other

Furthermore, gold and bitcoin do not fulfill the same function in a world where geopolitical tensions dictate financial flows. Gold remains a strategic tool for states, while bitcoin becomes a practical instrument for individuals.

When crises intensify, central banks accumulate gold to preserve their monetary sovereignty and strengthen their position. Conversely, individuals prefer bitcoin to maintain direct and immediate access to their capital.

A striking example concretely and indisputably illustrates this difference in recent events. During the strikes in the Middle East, some stock exchanges were abruptly closed, while bitcoin remained accessible without interruption.

Coltman emphasizes this decisive advantage:

Shortly after the start of the conflict, both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges were closed following missile and drone strikes originating from Iran.

Now, bitcoin does not replace gold; it simply meets a different need.

Why Analysts Are Divided on the Future of the Markets

Finally, the divide between analysts is explained by profoundly different visions of the future global monetary and financial system. Some believe bitcoin could surpass gold, while others remain attached to gold’s dominance.

Economist Lyn Alden believes bitcoin could outperform gold in the coming years, following a well-known cyclical logic. Conversely, Ray Dalio asserts that gold will remain dominant as a global store of value in the financial system.

At the same time, gold is under pressure from high interest rates, a strong dollar, and a persistent inflationary environment. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is going through a consolidation phase typical of previous cycles.

Key Benchmarks of the Current Duel

• Gold has fallen by more than 11% over a recent week;
• Gold remains close to its recent historical highs;
• Bitcoin is in a classic consolidation phase;
• BTC remains accessible continuously, even in times of crisis;
• The BTC price currently reaches 68,781 dollars.

Overall, the current situation does not allow bitcoin advocates to claim victory. Despite some recent resilience, bitcoin already shows worrying signs of fragility today. After a solid weekend, BTC fell below 69,000 dollars, strongly rekindling doubts. In this uncertain context, overconfidence could be costly for the most enthusiastic investors.