Bitcoin Approaches a Decisive Zone: Is a New Bull Cycle About to Begin?

Last week, I explained that Bitcoin was still moving inside the $76,000-$82,000 range, continuing the sideways structure we have seen since August. My view remains unchanged: we are getting closer to another attempt to break the $82,000-$83,000 area, but for me a real breakout requires a solid weekly close above that zone.

Why could that mark the beginning of a new bullish cycle?

One of the signals I am watching is the 50-week moving average, currently around the $77,500-$78,000 area. Bitcoin has managed to reclaim this moving average and is trading back above it. Historically, reclaiming the 50-week moving average after a bearish phase has accompanied the beginning of a new bullish expansion on several occasions, although no single indicator should be treated as confirmation on its own.

The current structure also shares similarities with 2022-2023, when Bitcoin needed several attempts around this moving average before eventually reclaiming it and continuing higher. That is why the key confirmation for me remains the $82,000-$83,000 region. A clear weekly close above that area would shift my market view toward the beginning of a new bullish phase.

ETF Flows Remain Slightly Positive for the Market

Bitcoin ETF flows are another factor I continue to monitor. The September data is mixed, with both strong inflow and outflow sessions, but the balance across the period shown remains positive overall.

There have been notable selling days, including approximately $450.4 million of net outflows on 15 September and $295.9 million on 16 September. However, these have been offset by strong buying sessions such as roughly $730.8 million on 3 September and $433.0 million on 18 September. Overall, this leaves ETF flows somewhat positive for the market rather than showing sustained institutional selling pressure.

Altcoins I Am Positioning For

Looking ahead to a possible bullish phase, I have also started positioning in several altcoins. The assets I am currently watching and holding include ZAMA, ZEC, NEAR, ONDO and SOL.

In ZAMA, I already built spot exposure around $0.05, an entry I previously shared with my community. Since that call, the spot position has risen by more than 100%. I also opened a futures position using 3x leverage which, at the time of writing, is showing more than 250% profit.

ZEC, NEAR, ONDO and SOL have also been added to my portfolio and are positioned for the next bullish move I expect in the market.

For now, the focus returns to Bitcoin. Reclaiming the 50-week moving average has been an important first step; breaking and closing above $82,000-$83,000 would be, for me, the real confirmation of the beginning of a new bullish phase.