Bitcoin: Bitwise Claims That The 4-year Cycle Is Dead And Is Betting Everything On 2026

While many analysts were betting on a bitcoin peak in 2025, Bitwise takes everyone by surprise. According to its Chief Investment Officer, the real peak of the cycle could occur in 2026. A challenge to the famous four-year theory linked to halving, with solid arguments to back it up… What if the best for BTC is yet to come?

Bitwise claims the 4-year cycle is dead and bets everything on 2026

Bitwise is no stranger to making bold moves. In May 2025, the company had already anticipated a massive inflow of $420 billion into Bitcoin by 2026.

Last Friday, Matt Hougan, their Chief Investment Officer, again shook up certainties by publishing a striking analysis on X (formerly Twitter).

According to him, the famous four-year bitcoin cycle belongs to the past. This break from traditional doctrine rests on three fundamental pillars.

First argument: the diminishing impact of halvings. Each halving mechanically loses half of its influence compared to the previous one. This technical phenomenon explains why post-halving gains have been gradually diminishing since 2012.

Second factor: the institutional revolution. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed more than $30 billion since January 2024. This ongoing institutional demand replaces the cyclical speculative purchases of the past. Strategy and other corporate giants now accumulate bitcoin as a strategic reserve.

Third catalyst: the favorable macroeconomic environment. Trump is actively pushing Jerome Powell towards lowering interest rates. This accommodative monetary policy makes bonds and savings accounts less attractive. Capital naturally migrates towards alternative assets like bitcoin.

Stable growth rather than explosive

Unlike previous cycles, often marked by spectacular rises followed by violent crashes, Matt Hougan envisions a more measured scenario. 

I could be wrong, but I am confident there will be significant volatility. And I think it will be more of a “stable and sustained boom” rather than a supercycle. 

In other words, no sudden euphoria, but a steady rise supported by solid fundamentals.

This vision goes against more traditional forecasts. Analyst Rekt Capital, for example, estimates a market peak could be reached as early as October 2025, 550 days after the last halving. This divergence highlights the persistent uncertainty around the timing of the next peak.

For Hougan, strengthening regulation is a key factor. He believes it has reduced systemic risks that previously weighed on the sector.

The risk of an explosion is mitigated thanks to improved regulation and the institutionalization of the space.

However, not everything is without risk. Hougan warns about the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies, which accumulate BTC through debt or issuing new shares. In the event of a market reversal, these structures could be particularly exposed. VanEck shares this concern, warning of their fragility in the face of a sharp drop in bitcoin price.