Bitcoin Decline Linked To Inflation Fears And Oil Spike

Under pressure from traditional markets, the leading crypto has just hit a weekly low in a climate dominated by soaring oil prices and geopolitical tensions. This movement goes beyond a simple technical correction and revives darker scenarios. Some analysts already mention a return to $10,000, reigniting the debate on the crypto market’s vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks.

Bitcoin weakened by macroeconomic instability

Bitcoin briefly fell below $66,000, reaching its lowest level of the week amid market pressure. Several converging signals explain this drop :

• Oil surged to $114 per barrel amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz ;
• The Nasdaq declined by 2 %, indicating a flight to safer assets ;
• Over $400 million in liquidations were recorded in the crypto market within 24 hours.

This move is part of a broader dynamic of risk asset disengagement, where bitcoin now closely correlates with traditional markets.

The prevailing nervousness also showed in public reactions. Thus, Kobeissi Letter described the situation as “the most confusing phase of the war in Iran to date”, highlighting the extreme uncertainty linked to the geopolitical context.

An intervention by Donald Trump, disappointing investors, failed to reassure the markets. Meanwhile, the prospect of inflation reaching 3.6 % if oil prices remain high intensifies concerns about the macroeconomic environment.

The $10,000 scenario revived by analysts

Beyond the immediate market reaction, some voices seek to place bitcoin’s trajectory in a longer-term perspective. Mike McGlone, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, mentions a possible return to a level far below current prices.

He estimates “that before the largest liquidity injection in history in 2020-2021, bitcoin traded around $10,000, and it might be returning there”. This statement is based on the idea that the exceptional liquidity conditions that supported the market after 2020 could reverse.

This $10,000 threshold corresponds to a historical zone notably linked to the development of futures markets on bitcoin, often considered a balance point before massive monetary expansion. McGlone’s analysis indicates a return to a valuation more aligned with pre-cycle dynamics, in a context where overall liquidity is contracting.

This reading opens a general debate on bitcoin’s current nature. Whether a speculative asset sensitive to macroeconomic conditions or a store of value capable of resisting external shocks, its positioning is debatable. If energy tensions and inflation persist, markets might continue reducing their risk exposure. Conversely, a calming of the global context could quickly reverse the trend. Between these two scenarios, bitcoin now evolves under the direct influence of global macroeconomic balances.