Bitcoin: ETF inflows drop 90% in one week

Bitcoin trades around 84,000 dollars as institutional demand shows signs of slowing. Between September 28 and October 2, US spot ETFs recorded only 241.1 million dollars in net inflows. Meanwhile, the futures market is reducing its leverage. These movements now place ETF flows and several price levels at the center of upcoming market developments, as investors closely watch the next price moves.

Bitcoin faces decline in flows to ETFs

The bitcoin price traded around 84,000 dollars after another failure below its annual opening of 87,700 dollars. On October 2, its price had reached 87,200 dollars before falling below that level. Bitfinex considers this rejection as the third breakthrough failure in ten days.

Between September 28 and October 2, US bitcoin spot ETFs attracted 241.1 million dollars. One week earlier, these products had recorded 2.39 billion dollars in net inflows. The drop thus reaches about 90%, according to data presented by Bitfinex. This decrease occurs while the price remains near several thresholds followed by US ETF holders as well.

The nine consecutive days streak of inflows also ended on September 30. On that day, ETFs recorded a net outflow of 148.7 million dollars. In detail, BlackRock’s IBIT received 450.2 million dollars. Conversely, Fidelity’s FBTC suffered 168 million dollars in outflows, showing a mixed evolution among the main products.

Leverage reduces on futures contracts

The futures market is also experiencing a slowdown. Before the release of the September employment report, open interest had increased by 2.1 billion dollars. Afterwards, traders reduced their positions, causing a decrease of 1.5 billion dollars.

Cumulative open interest on futures now reaches about 625,000 bitcoins. Bitfinex indicates this is its lowest level since January 1. This decline accompanies weakness in spot demand observed in ETFs. According to the presented analysis, the next bitcoin evolution would therefore depend more on a return of spot buying.

The price level of ETF holders also provides an important benchmark. Bitfinex places their average cost around 84,320 dollars. Inflows reach about 65 million dollars when the price remains less than 2% below this level. They rise to about 136 million dollars when the market moves more than 10% above.

Price levels to watch now

Bitfinex considers 86,000 dollars as an important level for bitcoin. Conversely, a drop below 82,600 dollars could cause further losses for ETF holders. The zone between 84,000 and 84,500 dollars concentrates about 867,000 BTC. It thus represents the largest group of average cost identified in this analysis.

Nearly 75% of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. Bitfinex forecasts consolidation between 84,000 dollars and the annual opening price. The evolution of ETF flows will therefore remain a central factor in determining if the market can regain firmer momentum.

Data related to employment, inflation, spending, and Treasury yields also influence expectations. Weak employment growth strengthens expectations for a status quo in October, despite the high levels of these other indicators. For Bitfinex, larger ETF inflows could accompany a rise toward 90,000 dollars.

If trades remain below 81,300 dollars, the levels of 77,000 dollars and the True Market Mean, near 77,200 dollars, could then come into play. Bitcoin is thus between weakened ETF demand and several clearly identified thresholds. The next move will mainly depend on spot flow strength recovering.