Bitcoin Starts October at $85K, Eyes $95K?
Bitcoin (BTC), the first crypto asset by market capitalization, closed September at $83,563 and trades around $84,700 on October 1st, according to Bitcoin.com News. Lacie Zhang, research head at Bitget Wallet, proposes a bitcoin forecast for October 2026 between $78,000 and $95,000. This represents a gap of −8.2% to +11.8% from $85,000, with the higher range being farther from the base than the lower.
In brief
- Lacie Zhang places the key support at $82,000 and the bullish trigger at $87,500 (Bitget Wallet, October 1st).
- Bitcoin closes September 54.7% above its realized price, according to calculations based on PlanB’s data.
- Schedule to watch for bitcoin’s trajectory: US employment on October 2nd, CPI on October 14th, and Fed on October 28th.
What price for bitcoin in October?
According to Lacie Zhang, the base scenario for the bitcoin (BTC) price ranges from $78,000 to $95,000 in October. A clear breakthrough above $87,500 would open the way to bitcoin at $95,000. Conversely, a sustained break below $80,000 would weaken the bullish trend.
Cointribune has calculated the crypto gaps from $85,000.
| Threshold | Gap from $85,000 | Role |
| $82,000 | −3.5% | Key support |
| $87,500 | +2.9% | Bullish trigger |
| $95,000 | +11.8% | Top of the range |
From $85,000, bitcoin should therefore drop about 3.5% to return to $82,000. Moving to $87,500 would represent an increase of 2.9%. Reaching $95,000 would imply a rise of 11.8%.
What this range doesn’t say: the probability of each outcome. Wide by $17,000, it describes a framework, not a certainty.
Which indicators can influence bitcoin price in October?
The realized price is the average price at which bitcoins last changed hands. Crypto analyst PlanB estimates it at $54,000. Based on this estimate, Cointribune calculates the monthly close is about 54.7% above.
Upstream, the 200-week moving average leaves the realized price 26.6% higher. It is close to $66,000.
As for US Bitcoin ETFs, they lost $148.7 million on September 30. Fidelity tops the list with $125.6 million outflow. According to Farside Investors, this is the first outflow after nine days of inflows valued at nearly $3.08 billion.
Note that Ethereum and Solana ETFs show a significant decline. A session of outflows does not distinguish profit-taking from a real withdrawal. These figures therefore do not measure crypto investors’ intentions.
Which macroeconomic events to follow for bitcoin in October 2026?
The BLS releases September employment this Friday, October 2nd at 2:30 p.m. Paris time. August showed 162,000 job creations. This caused a bitcoin decline of about 2%, below $80,000, according to Yahoo Finance.
A stronger-than-expected labor market could strengthen expectations of a restrictive Fed monetary policy. This would weigh on risky assets like bitcoin. Conversely, a marked slowdown in employment would revive hopes for monetary easing.
Good to know: the Fed raised its key rate by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to 3.75–4%.
Lacie Zhang tempers the seasonal effect of October:
Seasonality alone is not an investment thesis.
Lacie Zhang, Head of Research, Bitget Wallet, quoted by Bitcoin.com News, October 1, 2026
Three dates will therefore mark the trajectory of bitcoin: the US jobs report this Friday, October 2nd, inflation (CPI) on October 14th, and the Fed decision on October 28th. The key thresholds of $82,000 and $87,500 will serve as landmarks, to be closely watched by any crypto investor in the coming days.
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My name is Ariela, and I am 31 years old. I have been working in the field of web writing for 7 years now. I only discovered trading and cryptocurrency a few years ago, but it is a universe that greatly interests me. The topics covered on the platform allow me to learn more. A singer in my spare time, I also cultivate a great passion for music and reading (and animals!)
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.