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Bitcoin Heading Towards $60,000? Analysis of June 18, 2024

Tue 18 Jun 2024 ▪ 5 min of reading ▪ by Family Trading Partnership
Getting informed Invest

After failing to reach its last peak, Bitcoin shows increased selling pressure. Let’s analyze the future prospects of BTC price together.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Situation

After rejecting $72,000, Bitcoin experienced selling pressure that drove its price below the first support mentioned in the June 11 analysis, around $67,000 – $66,000. Thus, the short period of range at this price level seems to have ended. Now, a selling structure is apparent in the short term and opens the way for a continuation of the downward movement to $60,000. However, before reaching this last price level, there is a value zone that could act as support, around $63,000.

At the time of writing this text, the Bitcoin price is trading around $65,600. We can see that the cryptocurrency has recently generated buying interest around $65,000, making it an area of interest to watch. It’s also worth noting that this price zone is at the same level as the 50-day moving average. Thus, it would be reassuring to stay above this price level to not question the medium-long term structure of BTC. Regarding Bitcoin’s price dynamics, it seems to continue to weaken as evidenced by its price and oscillators. Therefore, this does not support the buying camp.

BTCUSD Daily Chart
BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and passionate trader in the cryptocurrency market. He is now a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. There, you will find Lives, educational content, and mutual support around financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts seems to follow the price of its underlying asset. Nevertheless, it is particularly resurgent. This demonstrates a sustained speculative interest even as the Bitcoin price is being revised downwards. Combined with declining funding rates, one might imagine that this resurgence is due to growing seller interest. However, being still positive, it shows still-dominant buying strength. On the liquidation side, we can observe that buyers have recently faced forced liquidations precisely at the 65,000 mark. This demonstrates a buyer force capitulation. Nonetheless, we can rejoice in the market reaction showing ongoing buyer absorption.

Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate
Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate

The liquidation heatmap of recent months indicates that BTC/USDT has recently come into contact with the liquidation zone around $65,000. Buying interest seems to be taking shape though it has not truly manifested. Now, the most significant liquidation zone is located above its current price, precisely around $72,200. Below the current price, we can also note the liquidity cluster near $60,000. If the market approaches this level, we could witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. These zones therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)
BTC Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)

Hypotheses for Bitcoin (BTC) Price

  • As long as Bitcoin manages to stay above $65,000, we can anticipate reintegration of $67,000 to then reach $72,000. The next resistance to consider, if the upward movement continues, would be Bitcoin’s ATH below $74,000. Higher up, we can highlight the first level of Fibonacci extensions identified at $78,300. At this stage, this would represent an increase equivalent to 19%.
  • If Bitcoin fails to stay above $65,000, we could consider buying interest support at $63,000. The next level to consider, if the downward movement continues, would be around $60,000. At this stage, this would represent a decline close to -9%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has recently faced selling pressure, leading to a key support breakdown and signaling a possible continuation of the downward movement in the short term. However, a support zone has emerged, offering a glimmer of hope for buyers. The current dynamic remains weak, and without staying above $60,000, the medium and long-term structure could be questioned. Thus, it will be crucial to closely observe price reaction at different key levels to confirm or invalidate current hypotheses. It is also important to stay vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that cryptocurrency prices can also quickly evolve based on other more fundamental factors.

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Family Trading

Family Trading is a community of proprietary traders active since 2017, offering live sessions, educational content, and support around financial markets including cryptocurrencies, with Elie FT, an investor and passionate trader in the crypto market, by its side.

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