Bitcoin May Face One Final Sell-off Before Recovery, Says NYDIG

The scenario of a bitcoin freed from its cycles thanks to the arrival of institutional investors is wavering. While the market was settling into almost unanimous confidence, NYDIG cools the ardor with an analysis that recalls an old rule: every phase of euphoria eventually calls for a correction. According to the investment company, quantitative models now reveal a marked decline in the price of the flagship crypto, reigniting the debate on the strength of the current bull cycle.

The specter of a $38,000 bottom for bitcoin

Bitcoin is undergoing a severe correction. To better understand the thesis defended by NYDIG in its report, here are the essential facts to remember :

• A marked correction since the peak : bitcoin trades around $64,500, down nearly 30% since early 2026 and at 50% from its October 2025 peak at $126,080 ;
• A critical local low : the asset hit a 21-month low at $58,035, wiping out $40 billion in market capitalization in a single day ;
• The cyclicality highlighted by NYDIG : the firm notes that: “the 2025-2026 decline of bitcoin brings back to the forefront the narrative of the 4-year cycle, as the timing and structure increasingly resemble previous reset years 2014, 2018, and 2022, even if the trajectory has not exactly replicated those dips”.

To technically justify this floor, NYDIG relies on the history of the protocol’s bear cycles, marked by corrections of 75% to 85%. Applying a 70% decline (comparable to 2022) from the ATH of $126,080, the mathematical modeling precisely places the bottom between $38,000 and $39,000 by October 2026, four years after the historical trough of the previous cycle.

An atypical correction without major capitulation

Nevertheless, NYDIG stresses that this theoretical projection is not an absolute forecast due to unique characteristics of this cycle. The year 2025 has indeed become the least volatile in the history of bitcoin, which could soften the final descent.

Moreover, typical indicators of a bear market bottom are not yet visible, the firm clarifying in a previous note that so far there has been “no long-term holder capitulation, no terminal insolvencies, and no overall reset”.

This specificity is explained by a deep structural change. The current market is no longer driven by spot demand, but almost exclusively by successive liquidations of leverage. As a result, so-called value investors as well as momentum buyers prefer to remain cautious and await clear buy signals.

The discord among analysts: Wall Street facing the purge dilemma

This pessimistic scenario of a return below $40,000 triggers strong opposition among other major Wall Street firms. Conversely, analysts at K33 Research firmly argue that the recent trough at $58,035 already represented the maximum drop level. According to them, the asset is now heading towards a healthy consolidation phase within a range between $60,000 and $75,000. Similarly, Standard Chartered believes the cycle floor was established around $59,000.

Other giants are however more cautious about a rapid recovery. Galaxy Digital does not rule out a slide towards $40,000. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes the bear market could stretch until early 2027. Finally, Grayscale states that exiting this lethargy will entirely depend on the emergence of new macroeconomic catalysts.

Beyond these differences, more than half of bitcoins in circulation are currently showing unrealized losses. Historically, such a level of distress has always preceded the formation of major cycle bottoms. Whether the market validates the resilience defended by K33 or undergoes the slide towards the theorized $38,000 by NYDIG, bitcoin is undoubtedly in the terminal phase of its contraction. The future will depend on investors’ ability to absorb this purge to start the next major cycle.