Has the Worst Passed for Bitcoin? Glassnode Spots an Early Sign of Recovery

The cryptocurrency market continues to look for clues that can confirm the end of the recent phase of price weakness. Several on-chain data points are now attracting the attention of analysts, who are trying to identify the first signs of a lasting reversal. In this context, Bitcoin once again finds itself at the center of Glassnode’s observations. An indicator followed by its research team shows that selling pressure from investors may begin to ease, even though several technical levels remain decisive.

Bitcoin: Glassnode Observes a Signal of Loss Stabilization

While several on-chain indicators are being scrutinized to detect a possible change in Bitcoin’s momentum, Cryptovizart, lead research analyst at Glassnode, highlights in an analysis published on X an indicator he considers essential to identify a possible market bottom: the volume of realized losses (in USD) of cryptocurrency holders from 1 to 2 years ago.

According to him, the losses realized by investors holding their assets for one to two years help better understand the evolution of selling pressure on Bitcoin. This indicator thus offers an insight into the behavior of a category of holders that is often decisive during trend changes.

The analysis relies on several key points:

• Study period: from July 2024 to July 2025 for the analysis of realized losses on the blockchain.
• Bitcoin price at the beginning of this period: around $62,800.
• Peak reached before the turnaround observed among many investors: nearly $107,000.

The study shows that many investors who bought during this period gradually accepted selling at a loss after a long phase of price underperformance. This capitulation has increased the selling pressure observed in the market. For Cryptovizart, this behavior corresponds to a pattern already seen during previous bear cycles.

The analyst reminds that bear markets have historically tended to last as long as this category of investors continues to feed sales. On the other hand, when this pressure begins to ease, conditions gradually become more favorable for a change in momentum.

A Reversal of Realized Losses Now Attracts Attention

The chart shared by the Glassnode analyst shows that realized losses on a 30-day moving average recently exceeded $75 million. However, this indicator then began to slow down before initiating a trend reversal.

According to Cryptovizart, the stabilization followed by the reversal of this moving average is among the most monitored signals to identify a possible bottom in Bitcoin’s bear market. He nevertheless reminds that this type of indicator does not provide immediate confirmation. It rather represents an additional element reinforcing the hypothesis of a gradual momentum change.

This observation remains to be followed in the coming weeks. If the decrease in realized losses is confirmed, it could indicate an exhaustion of selling pressure from investors who bought near the peaks of the previous cycle.

The $69,000 Threshold Remains the Next Market Test

Glassnode emphasizes that realized losses are not the only indicator to watch. Other on-chain data continue to provide information about the current market structure. Among them, the stochastic relative strength index (RSI), calculated over two-month periods, presents conditions traditionally associated with reversal phases.

In its newsletter The Week Onchain, the company especially highlights the aggregated cost basis of short-term holders. This level is currently around $69,000 and also corresponds to the previous all-time highs reached during the 2021 bull market. For Glassnode, this zone could provoke a significant reaction from Bitcoin investors.

Analysts believe that “many short-term holders might be tempted to sell when their position returns to breakeven.” A convincing breakout above this level would open more room for a market recovery. Conversely, a rejection would maintain this resistance as a major obstacle for Bitcoin.

The next few weeks will verify whether the signals observed by Glassnode strengthen or remain isolated. The evolution of realized losses, combined with market behavior around $69,000, should provide new elements to assess BTC‘s ability to confirm a genuine trend change.