Bitcoin: Metaplanet Raises Its Forecasts for 2026

Metaplanet has just sent a clear signal to the market: the company does not intend to let its trajectory be dictated by a set of accounting entries. Yes, the company expects a heavy annual loss in 2025. And yet, it is raising its operational targets and announcing almost a doubling of sales in 2026. Said like that, it sounds like a paradox. In reality, it is mainly a clash of vocabulary between accounting and cash.

A massive loss… but above all an accounting optical illusion at Metaplanet

Metaplanet announces a non-cash impairment of about 680 to 700 million dollars on its BTC holdings. Simple translation: at closing, the book value is adjusted according to period-end prices, and the company “records” a loss without spending a single dollar of cash.

This point is essential because it explains why the company can show, in the same document, a better operational outlook and a staggering net loss. It’s a bit like judging a ship’s solidity only by the color of its paint: it might worry, but it’s not what keeps it afloat.

Besides, Metaplanet insists: this adjustment has “no direct impact” on cash flows or operations. In other words, the business keeps running. And it would even be running better than expected, judging by the scale of the guidance revision.

2025: the real story hides in operational performance

For 2025, Metaplanet raises its revenue forecasts to 8.905 billion yen (about 58 million dollars) and targets an operating income around 40 million dollars. This is not a detail: a company increasing its revenue and operating profit projections is not a company “dying,” even if the net result says otherwise.

The most telling point comes from the “Bitcoin income generation” segment. Management indicates that revenues for Q4 2025 should “significantly exceed” initial expectations. Result: the annual goal for this segment rises to about 55 million dollars, against 40 million previously announced. Here, we are no longer in theory: it’s the core engine accelerating.

And yet, the company anticipates an ordinary loss of about 632 million dollars and a net loss of about 491 million. It’s brutal. But the “why” matters more than the “how much”: these losses are largely driven by accounting depreciation, not by operational bleeding. The annual results publication is expected on February 16, and it is then that many will finally make the distinction between performance and presentation.

Bitcoin Cash: the scale changes, and with it the risk interpretation

The other piece of the puzzle is the growth of cash in BTC. Metaplanet indicates that its holdings increased from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025. This jump is not “progressive,” it is industrial. And when a company scales up so fast, its financial statements become mechanically more sensitive to price variations.

The company also highlights a proprietary indicator: “BTC yield” per diluted share, announced at 568% for the year. In other words, the amount of Bitcoin “backing” each diluted share would have increased substantially. This is a way to speak to investors who think in BTC exposure rather than simple annual P&L.

And this is precisely where the debate becomes interesting: the bigger Metaplanet grows in BTC, the more it exposes itself to the effects of volatility on the accounts… but the more it positions itself as a growth vehicle for those wanting a cash strategy centered on Bitcoin. It’s not a discreet bet. It’s a conscious stance.

2026: an ambitious guidance, but without promise on the net

For 2026, Metaplanet announces about 103 million dollars in revenues and 73 million dollars in operating income. Almost all would come from the “income generation” business linked to Bitcoin, with SG&A expenses around 29 million. The message is clear: the company thinks it can convert its strategy into recurring revenues, not just narrative.

On the other hand, it does not provide guidance on ordinary or net income for 2026. And, for once, this is rather a proof of lucidity: predicting the net profit of a company whose cash is massively exposed to a volatile asset often amounts to “predicting the price” disguised as financial projection, especially in a market where flows can shift in a few days, as illustrated by the recent outflow of 1.72 billion dollars from US Bitcoin ETFs in one week.