Bitcoin : Should You Believe in a Rebound or Fear a New Drop?

Bitcoin returns to the center of discussions after a new phase of weakness in the crypto market. On-chain data shows a possible approach to a bottom, but demand remains fragile. Between encouraging valuation signals, contraction of spot purchases, and ETF decline, the market still hesitates. So the question is simple: is BTC preparing a sustainable rebound or risking a new sharp drop?

Bitcoin : a possible floor according to on-chain data

After a drop towards 59,000 dollars last week, Bitcoin trades about 9% above its realized price, estimated at 53,600 dollars. This indicator represents the aggregated average cost of participants on the blockchain. In previous cycles, it has often served as an important benchmark during bear markets.

For bitcoin, this level therefore attracts analysts’ attention. Historically, down phases have often ended near the realized price, or even slightly below. The November 2022 case remains particular because BTC briefly crossed this threshold during the FTX bankruptcy before resuming a stronger trajectory.

Thus, from a valuation standpoint, the market could enter a floor zone. However, this signal is not enough to confirm a reversal. A price near a historical support can open an accumulation phase, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustainable rebound.

Demand too weak to validate the bullish scenario

However, bitcoin still lacks a central element: strong and steady demand. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, unfavorable demand on the spot market and speculative futures does not yet confirm a definitive bottom. The market thus remains divided between possible stabilization and risk of breakdown.

Total demand, which combines speculative futures markets and apparent spot markets, fell to -652,000 last week. This is the strongest contraction observed since January 2022. This drop shows that buyers remain cautious, even when the price approaches historically sensitive levels.

Moreover, long-term bitcoin demand in the spot market has become negative. It reaches its lowest level since February 2024. This signal complicates the scenario of a rapid recovery, as a bullish reversal often requires a gradual return of durable buyers.

ETFs and capitulation remain signals to watch

In the spot ETF market, Bitcoin also faces notable pressure. The 30-day demand growth shows a negative level unprecedented since the launch of these products in January 2024. This movement suggests that U.S. institutional demand has faded, even reversed into net sales.

Meanwhile, realized losses by bitcoin holders have not yet reached a capitulation level. However, in several market cycles, a peak in losses can indicate that the weakest sellers have already left the market. Its absence suggests that selling pressure is not yet fully exhausted.

In this context, BTC is in a decisive zone. A rebound remains possible if total demand stabilizes, ETF flows resume, and the market absorbs current losses. Conversely, without improvement of these factors, the current price looks more like a candidate for the floor than a confirmed bottom.