Bitcoin Technicals Suggest Incoming Price Explosion

The current stability of bitcoin may conceal a sudden reversal. While the asset opened 2026 at $87,500, rarely combined technical signals, bullish divergence of the RSI, extreme compression of the Bollinger bands, indicate an imminent surge in volatility. Several analysts mention a possible rebound. However, attention also focuses on another breaking point: the announced end of the four-year cycle, a historical pillar of crypto strategies, now challenged by influential market voices.

Technical signals announce a possible surge in volatility

While some experts anticipate a historic Bull Run in 2026, others observe an unusual alignment of indicators suggesting strong volatility ahead.

On X (formerly Twitter), trader Jelle notably highlighted : “new year, new start. We have a confirmed bullish divergence on the 3-day time frame, right at the level of a key support”. He refers here to a bullish divergence on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on a three-day timeframe, generally interpreted as an early signal for a rise.

On his side, analyst Quantdata21 draws attention to another phenomenon : an extreme compression of the Bollinger bands. “There is only one other time when daily Bollinger bands were this tight, with a weekly RSI below 40. It was in January 2023, and everyone remembers what happened to bitcoin afterwards”, he writes, recalling the price surge at that time.

The following elements contribute to fueling the hypothesis of an imminent breakou t:

• A bullish RSI divergence on three days, detected while BTC tests a key support ;

• A weekly RSI below 40, a level rarely reached in a price compression context ;

• A record compression of the Bollinger bands, with bandwidth as low as in January 2023, a period that preceded a strong bullish surge ;

• A context of the return of traditional markets (TradFi) after the year-end truce, which could catalyze sudden movements.

For experienced technical analysts, the coincidence of these indicators constitutes fertile ground for a phase of increased volatility. Even if the direction of the movement remains to be confirmed, the momentum seems to lean towards the bullish side in the short term, according to several market participants.

Towards the end of the 4-year cycle : a new era for bitcoin ?

Alongside technical analysis, another discussion is gaining intensity within the cryptosphere: the challenge to bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle.

On December 31st, the well-known entrepreneur and maximalist Simon Dixon, founder of Bnk To The Future, declared on X : “goodbye to the 4-year Bitcoin cycle”, stating that 2026 would mark the beginning of a “new era” for BTC.

This statement echoes a reality: for the first time since the implementation of the post-halving model, bitcoin closed an entire year in the red after a halving, a situation that calls into question the robustness of the cyclical model used for over ten years.

This break is partly explained by the structural transformation of the market. The massive arrival of institutional capital, new investment vehicles (ETFs, regulated derivatives), and the growing financialization of the ecosystem seem to dilute the influence of historical events like the halvings.

In this context, some analysts, like Michaël van de Poppe, prefer to bet on more contemporary market dynamics. He believes that the recent growth in bitcoin accessibility could be enough to propel the price towards “$90,000 in the coming weeks”.

While technical signals accumulate and historical landmarks falter, bitcoin’s future seems to open on unprecedented ground. In this uncertain context, Mow predicts a historic bullish decade for bitcoin, a prospect which, if confirmed, would sustainably redefine investment strategies in the crypto ecosystem.