Bitcoin: The False Breakout is Being Confirmed

In my analysis last week, I warned that Bitcoin’s bullish move would only be valid if the price managed to consolidate above the daily resistance and confirm a breakout above the 200-week EMA. I also warned investors not to rely too heavily on the ETF inflows, as although purchases continued on a daily basis, their volume was gradually decreasing. I also pointed out that a quick loss of this area would turn the move into a false breakout. Today, that scenario is starting to materialize. Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the breakout level reinforces my macro bearish view and increases the probability of a correction towards lower liquidity zones.

If we look at Bitcoin, we can see that it is currently trading between $66,000 and $60,000, with the $66,000 area acting as resistance. We have tested this level several times, even though it previously served as support around the $65,000 region.

From both a technical and psychological perspective, one of the biggest mistakes investors make is trying to predict Bitcoin’s exact bottom. Every market cycle brings countless predictions placing the bottom at a specific price, but the reality is that nobody can accurately determine where a correction will end. Instead of focusing on a single level, I believe it is far more effective to identify a high-probability accumulation zone.

As I mentioned when Bitcoin was trading around $120,000, my expectation was for the market to eventually move back towards the $60,000 area, and my approach remains exactly the same. Could Bitcoin fall to $45,000–$50,000? Absolutely. Can anyone say with 100% certainty that it will? No.

For that reason, I believe that any Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) purchases below $65,000 represent an attractive opportunity.

My strategy is not to buy the exact bottom of the market, but to gradually build a strong position through staggered purchases within a value zone. The objective is not to achieve the perfect entry price, but to secure a competitive average cost that allows participation in the next bullish cycle without depending on a single trade. Historically, this approach has proven to be far more consistent than waiting indefinitely for the absolute bottom, which in many cases never arrives.

From a macro perspective, my view remains unchanged from my previous analyses: the broader trend is still bearish. Any bullish impulse we see should currently be viewed as a move designed to capture liquidity rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.

For spot portfolios, I continue to favour an accumulation strategy based on discipline, proper risk management and a long-term investment mindset, preparing positions for the next bull cycle. Historically, buying during periods when the market is confirming a bear market and selling once the next bullish cycle is established has proven to be a highly profitable strategy.

Bitcoin is now heading towards its key support at $60,000. If this level fails to hold, I expect the market to revisit the $58,000 area, which represents the next important liquidity zone to watch.