BTC Meets The Real World Through Payments Boom

While the market remains struggling, another transformation, more discreet but decisive, is taking shape. In this new year, bitcoin will no longer seek to charm traders. It will integrate, step by step, into the real economy. If the price falls, usage, however, progresses. A pivotal year is opening, where the price drop contrasts with the silent rise of payment technologies. BTC no longer waits for the next bull run to exist: it finally becomes a daily tool.

2026, the year of disillusionment ?

After a 2025 marked by exuberance and bullish projections reaching up to 250,000 dollars, bitcoin is about to conclude a period of great disillusionments.

According to Michael Terpin, a historic investor in the sector, BTC could hit a low around 60,000 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026. “The end of 2026 will be an ideal moment to buy, as market lows caused by fear will gradually give way to a massive buying wave in 2028 and 2029, following the next halving which could trigger a supply shock”, he declares.

This outlook undermines hopes for an immediate rebound and especially weakens one of the pillars of crypto analysis: the post-halving four-year cycle.

Here are the key points to remember about this market dynamic :

• The historic four-year cycle model seems broken. Bitcoin is set to finish 2025 at a level lower than at the beginning of the year, contradicting the usual logic of a bullish peak about 12 to 18 months after a halving ;

• The chances of a new peak before the cycle low are now estimated at only 20 %, according to Michael Terpin, with probabilities decreasing each month ;

• The macroeconomic context remains decisive : a Fed rate cut in 2026 could offer a breath of fresh air for crypto markets, but this monetary easing would not be enough to reverse the trend;

• The US political situation also weighs heavily : Terpin warns against a scenario where “if the Republican Party does not control both chambers in the 2026 midterms, it could handicap the pro-crypto regulatory environment”.

In other words, the bitcoin market seems caught between two fires: slowly improving economic fundamentals and a still unstable political context. The cycle paradigm collapses, and with it, the benchmarks on which many investors based their expectations.

Towards a utility bitcoin : the silent push of payment infrastructures

Alongside this uncertain market climate, another observation emerges: 2026 should mark a turning point in the real use of bitcoin as a payment method.

For Rich Rines, blockchain developer and sector pioneer, “2025 made Bitcoin easier to hold and grow. 2026 should make it easier to use concretely”. In other words, after a phase focused on holding and passive income, bitcoin enters a new era of transactional use.

This change is notably driven by the rise of Bitcoin neobanks, BTC-backed stablecoins, but also by companies like Square, which has integrated bitcoin into its payment terminals, allowing merchants to accept it easily while automatically converting 1 % of their sales into BTC.

Another accelerator is the Lightning Network. This second-layer solution designed to improve bitcoin scalability continues to gain ground. Thanks to a payment channel system that reduces the number of on-chain transactions, Lightning facilitates instant and very low-cost payments.

For Graham Krizek, founder of Voltage, “the Lightning Network could capture 5 % of stablecoin flows by 2028”, thus highlighting its potential in the broader crypto economy. By removing technical frictions, the network makes bitcoin more competitive against traditional payment systems and centralized stablecoins.

Mow talks about a historic bull run coming for bitcoin, but it is in the uses that the future is already being built. In 2026, away from the spotlight, the ecosystem is equipping itself, adapting, and preparing the ground. If the price stagnates, the revolution is moving forward.