Citi Lifts Bitcoin Outlook As ETF Inflows Return

Citigroup has revised its 12-month target for bitcoin from $82,000 to $113,000 and for Ether from $2,240 to $3,028. In 2026, this third revision mainly relies on the return of capital into ETFs, even though the target set for bitcoin remains lower than that chosen by the banking institution at the start of the year.

Citi’s Bitcoin Forecasts Rise with ETFs

Citi mentioned increased activity in the crypto market, a more favorable macroeconomic environment, and the resumption of subscriptions in ETFs in a note dated September 30.

The banking institution now anticipates slow but more regular inflows as financial advisors and brokers increase their allocations. Here are the main announced assumptions :

• The 12-month target for bitcoin rises from $82,000 to $113,000 ;
• The forecast for Ether increases from $2,240 to $3,028 ;
• Citi expects $5 billion in inflows over the next twelve months ;
• The bank attributes its revision to ETF flows, market activity, and the macroeconomic context ;
• Currently, bitcoin trades around $86,300 and ether near $2,750.

Analysts led by Alex Saunders explain :

The increase comes from the three components of our process: activity, macroeconomics, and ETF flows.

These targets represent Citi’s estimates, and not levels that the two cryptos will necessarily reach.

Citi Revises Its Bitcoin Forecasts for the Third Time

This September increase marks a change from July. However, it is not a return to the anticipations from early in the year. The bank had already revised its forecasts twice downward due to fluctuations in flows and the economic context.

Date of Revision	Bitcoin 12 Months	Ether 12 Months	Direction
March 2026	$112,000 vs $143,000	$3,175 vs $4,304	Downward
July 2026	$82,000	$2,240	New Downward
September 2026	$113,000	$3,028	Upward

Citi thus is not more optimistic than at the start of the year. Its new bitcoin target exceeds that of March by $1,000 but remains $30,000 lower than the previous forecast of $143,000. Regarding Ether, the expected $3,028 still remains below the $3,175 forecasted in the March revision.

The bank had reduced its assumption of net inflows into ETFs over twelve months to zero in July, compared to $10 billion previously. This assumption now rises to $5 billion, justifying part of the September reversal.

ETF Flows Support Citi’s Bitcoin Forecasts

Data provided by Farside confirmed a clear rebound of US Bitcoin ETFs in September. These products recorded nine consecutive sessions of inflows from September 17 to 29, totaling $3.075 billion.

It is worth noting that the week of September 21 to 25 accounts for $2.386 billion. However, the series was interrupted on September 30 with $148.7 million in outflows, precisely the day Citi dated its note. Then, ETFs regained a positive balance of $102.7 million on October 1.

Citi estimated in July that $100 million in inflows would lead to a daily increase of nearly 0.53% in bitcoin. When mechanically applied to the $3.075 billion collected in nine sessions, this sensitivity would correspond to a theoretical effect near 16.3%.

However, such a calculation does not constitute a reliable projection. It therefore assumes a constant relationship while the price also depends on derivatives markets, liquidity, the dollar, and US interest rates. Thus, it mainly reveals why Citi attaches so much importance to ETFs in its models.

The Clarity Act Block Does Not Close the Regulatory File

The banking institution also incorporates US regulation in its scenario. On September 15, the Senate did not definitively reject the Clarity Act’s substance. However, it refused, by 50 votes to 49, to close the preliminary debate and move forward with examining the text, as the procedure required 60 votes.

Citi thus points out: “the failure of the Clarity Act reduced the chances of adopting a law on market structure, but it triggered regulatory announcements from the SEC that softened the negative sentiment”.

The SEC proposed on August 18 its “Regulation Crypto Assets”. This regulation could create a regime adapted to certain fundraisings in the crypto sector. Meanwhile, the CFTC submitted on September 17 to the OIRA a draft entitled “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets”, still under review.

These initiatives remain regulatory proposals. They do not yet replace the national legislative framework that the Clarity Act was supposed to establish.