Crypto: Spot volumes collapse by 60%... could this be the calm before the bullish storm?

The crypto market is going through a period of apparent calm, marked by a spectacular 66% drop in spot trading volumes. This decrease, often observed before major bullish phases, arouses investors’ interest. Between historical data, expert analyses, and upcoming regulatory decisions, the sector is at a decisive turning point.

The drop in spot volumes questions the crypto market

According to recent data, cryptocurrency spot trading volumes have dropped 66% since January 2025. After exceeding 500 billion dollars at the beginning of the year, volumes now stand around 250 billion, with sessions dropping as low as 200 billion. This sharp drop occurs amid a slowdown in capital inflows via crypto ETFs, especially those linked to Bitcoin, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainties.

Historically, such periods of low activity, called “lulls”, have often preceded major rebounds in the crypto ecosystem. In 2019 and 2020, similar volume drops were followed by increases of 200% to 500%. Today, 80% of altcoins have recorded corrections over the last seven days, while Bitcoin has corrected by 30% since October 2025. These figures raise a crucial question: is this drop a prelude to a new bullish phase?

Next phase of the crypto cycle: a buying signal to seize?

For Bitfinex, prolonged calm periods in crypto markets are not necessarily alarming. They often reflect a phase of silent accumulation, where institutional players temporarily withdraw while awaiting more favorable macroeconomic catalysts. Indeed, the “lulls” could well precede a significant recovery, provided market conditions improve.

Several optimistic signals are emerging and analysts believe that BTC could target $180,000 in 2026 after the recent Fed rate cuts. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with a Crypto Fear & Greed Index in “extreme fear” territory (23/100), reflecting widespread investor distrust.

Crypto Task Force meeting on December 15: a turning point for Bitcoin?

The Crypto Task Force, led by the SEC, is holding a roundtable on December 15 addressing financial surveillance and privacy protection in the cryptocurrency sector. Discussions will focus on crypto ETF regulation, transaction transparency, and stablecoin oversight—crucial subjects for institutional investors.

This event, broadcast live on SEC.gov, could have major repercussions on the future of Bitcoin and other digital assets. Two scenarios are emerging. In an optimistic context, a clear regulatory framework could restore investor confidence and favor a rebound in trading volumes.

Conversely, overly strict restrictions could deepen the current decline and delay the next bullish phase. Decisions made at this meeting will therefore be instrumental for the crypto market’s development in the coming months.

The combination of a historic drop in spot volumes, optimistic cyclical analysis, and impending regulatory decisions places the crypto market at a pivotal crossroads. The coming days, especially announcements from the Crypto Task Force, could well determine if this calm phase precedes a bullish storm or an extension of the crypto winter. In your opinion, should investors anticipate a recovery or prepare for a new period of uncertainty?