Democrats Gain Momentum On Polymarket And Kalshi

A few months before the U.S. midterm elections, crypto prediction markets have already chosen their side. On Polymarket and Kalshi, more than 12.5 million dollars have been wagered on a scenario that worries Republicans: a takeover of Congress by the Democrats. This rise in betting comes as Donald Trump faces unfavorable polls, gradually turning these crypto platforms into real political barometers followed even in Washington circles.

Polymarket and Kalshi See Democrats Taking Back Congress

Active traders on Polymarket and Kalshi converge on the same scenario for the 2026 midterm elections: a Democratic victory in the U.S. Congress. On Polymarket, the market shows over 7 million dollars in traded volume, while Kalshi exceeds 5.5 million dollars.

The implicit probabilities currently displayed by both platforms show a clear investor preference for a Democratic shift :

• Polymarket assigns a 47 % chance for Democratic control of the House and Senate ;
• The “Republican Senate + Democratic House” scenario reaches 34 % ;
• A full Republican victory is limited to 19 % ;
• On Kalshi, the probability of a complete Democratic victory stands at 45 % ;
• The scenario of an entirely Republican Congress reaches 25 % there.

This convergence draws attention because these platforms rely on financial markets funded with real money. Participants are not answering an opinion poll: they are taking monetary positions on future political events.

The resolution mechanisms used by Polymarket and Kalshi rely on the official results of the U.S. Congress or on projections validated by the major American media. As volumes increase, these platforms strengthen their status as alternative barometers of American political life.

Donald Trump’s Weakness Fuels Traders’ Bets

The observed dynamic in prediction markets is also explained by the deterioration of political on-chain data surrounding Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Several surveys cited in the article show a marked decline in the American president’s popularity. Quinnipiac gives Trump only 34 % approval against 58% disapproval. The AP-NORC poll reports 37 % favorable opinions versus 62 % unfavorable. The New York Times/Siena tracker also mentions a 37 % approval rate, described as the lowest point of his second term.

Thus, the political climate also complicates for Republicans in Congress. A Gallup poll shows a Congressional approval rating limited to 10 %, against 86 % disapproval. Meanwhile, Democrats would maintain a national lead between D+5 and D+7 on the “generic ballot”, a closely watched indicator before U.S. elections. Historically, the president’s party regularly loses seats in midterm elections since World War II, citing precedents from George W. Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010.

A Democratic victory at the midterms could profoundly change the American political balance. Several possible consequences are mentioned: blocking Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, ending the facilitated use of the reconciliation process, multiplying parliamentary inquiries, and new tensions around the U.S. debt ceiling. Through Kalshi and Polymarket, the crypto market mainly shows they are no longer limited to cryptos. They are progressively becoming spaces where investors, traders, and political observers try to anticipate future power dynamics of the world’s leading power.