Is A Drop To $70K Next For BTC ? Technicals Raise Red Flags

While bitcoin seems frozen around 88,000 dollars, the apparent calm masks growing tension in the markets. Between hopes for a rebound and fears of a brutal correction, investors position themselves at daggers drawn. This polarization intensifies as volumes on Binance reveal tactical movements, and technical indicators flirt with key levels. The market holds its breath, watching for the signal that will decide between a bullish continuation or a sharp return to much lower thresholds.

A risk of correction towards $70,000 according to several indicators

Stuck in a $5,000 corridor around $88,000, bitcoin shows deceptive inertia, while several technical signals and on-chain data converge towards a short-term bearish scenario.

Among the most serious alerts, the sudden increase in inflows on Binance fuels fears of increased selling pressure. In an analysis published on CryptoQuant, expert CryptoOnchain states that “the next major downward target is in the strong demand zone between $70,000 and $72,000, where stronger buying pressure is expected to emerge”.

He adds : “the combination of a technical break below $90,000 and the injection of $1.4 billion worth of BTC on Binance greatly increases the likelihood of a corrective move towards this zone”.

These concerns are also based on several worrisome technical indicators, particularly a rarely observed but historically feared signal :

• A bearish crossover between the 100-week EMA and the 100-week SMA : a technical setup that preceded 40 to 50 % drops during its two previous occurrences ;

• The weakening of the RSI on weekly data, with a bearish divergence reminiscent of 2021, at the end of the last bull market ;

• The eighth consecutive day without crossing $90,000, despite attempts at recovery, reflecting a slowdown in buying momentum.

According to Ted Pillows, trader and technical analyst, “buying pressure must intervene quickly to prevent the technical crossover that caused severe drops in the past”.

In other words, without a clear upward reaction, conditions for a return to previous highs could quickly set in.

Towards a bullish recovery ? Some traders’ cautious optimism

Contrary to these bearish outlooks, several influential traders foresee a positive turnaround in the bitcoin market.

Captain Faibik, widely followed on X, states that the current correction is now over and a bullish move is imminent. “In the coming days, bitcoin will break upwards, and everyone will rush in with FOMO entries, which will not be beneficial”, he warns. According to him, the market is already building the foundations for a recovery, marking the end of the current consolidation phase.

In a more structured analysis, the Korinek_Trades account uses Elliott wave theory to project a very optimistic scenario. According to the analysis, bitcoin should still form a “higher high” to complete the fifth wave of the current bullish cycle, aiming for a new all-time high.

“We should still see a higher high for the blue wave W5 to complete a 5-wave structure towards a new ATH”, he writes, adding that the potential target could extend up to $150,000. This market view is shared by Ted Pillows, who mentions a possible rally towards $98,000 to $100,000.

Bitcoin operates in a tension zone where each movement could serve as a catalyst. Between conflicting signals and divergent strategies, the market awaits a clear breakout. The coming days will be decisive in determining whether the bitcoin price starts a recovery or embarks on a more marked corrective phase.