Is the Bitcoin Halving Losing Its Influence on the BTC Price?

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving approaches, analysts from CryptoQuant are questioning its actual impact on the BTC price. Let’s explore the new factors that could determine the future market dynamics.

The Bitcoin Halving is Losing Its Influence

Long considered the main bullish driver of the Bitcoin price, the Halving, which cuts miner rewards by half approximately every 4 years, may not have the expected impact in 2024. According to CryptoQuant, a crypto analytics firm, the influence of this event has gradually faded over time.

CryptoQuant analysts point out a new determining factor: the demand from long-term investors and whales. Julio Monero, head of research at CryptoQuant, reveals that for the first time in history, the demand for bitcoins from permanent holders has surpassed issuance.

Moreover, data shows a significant increase in large Bitcoin investors, owning between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. This strong demand contrasts with the supply dynamics and is expected to intensify after the Halving.

A Market Undergoing Transformation

This evolution is explained by the fact that the new issuance of bitcoins is becoming increasingly small compared to the quantity sold by long-term holders. CryptoQuant highlights an 11% increase in one month of investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, reaching record levels.

The analytics firm explains in its report: “We believe that the effect of the Halving has diminished, as the new issuance of Bitcoins becomes smaller compared to the number of Bitcoins sold by long-term holders”.

However, despite these observations, many analysts remain optimistic about the impact of the Halving on the price. Renowned experts, such as Joe Consorti and Robert Kiyosaki, even anticipate a BTC reaching $100,000 after this event. Their optimism is based on historical trends that reveal a close correlation between previous Halvings and the spectacular price surges of Bitcoin.

Although the influence of the Bitcoin Halving seems to be waning according to CryptoQuant, optimism remains within the crypto community. Open interest on BTC reaching historic highs is evidence of investors’ confidence in the future of the queen of cryptos. The year 2024 will tell us whether the analysts’ forecasts are confirmed or not.