JPMorgan Flags Deeper Bitcoin Skepticism Than Gold

The market would reserve an unexpected paradox for bitcoin. Indeed, the distrust that still surrounds it would become a supporting factor if investors reduce their hedges. In a note, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou compared the recent dynamics of bitcoin to those of gold. Their interpretation relies on three elements: flows to ETFs, institutional positioning in futures markets, and the level of hedging around the main listed funds. Thus, gold appears more advanced in its recovery, while bitcoin retains more catching-up potential.

Flows to ETFs show an advantage for gold

Following the Federal Reserve meeting in late July, bitcoin-backed ETFs and gold ETFs recorded inflows, accompanying the return of the “debasement trade”, according to JPMorgan. Such momentum slowed during the week leading up to the publication of this note. Analysts link this decline to the rise in inflation-adjusted mandatory yields and inflation, and the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act.

This gap appears in flow recovery. Gold ETFs have offset all outflows recorded earlier this year. Regarding Bitcoin ETFs, they have recovered only about half. Also, JPMorgan notes a recent decline in demand for Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysts believe this lag leaves more room for a rebound if flows become more favorable. At this stage, gold therefore shows a more complete recovery, while bitcoin remains more dependent on a change in sentiment.

Three elements summarize the gap observed by JPMorgan between the two markets :

• Gold ETFs have recovered all their outflows recorded earlier in 2026 ;
• Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half ;
• Recent demand for Bitcoin ETFs has weakened again.

Positioning on IBIT shows stronger caution

This picture changes when looking at futures markets and short positions. JPMorgan specifies that positioning on futures remains high for both bitcoin and gold, revealing institutional support for both assets.

The clearest difference is at the ETF level. Thus, the short interest of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, remains near its highest level of the year, while that of SPDR Gold Shares, GLD, trades below its historical average.

JPMorgan thus describes “an initially more skeptical positioning than on gold”, which it links to higher hedging demand around bitcoin. The put/call open interest ratio is also higher for IBIT than for GLD.

These statistics reinforce the idea of a more defensive market toward bitcoin, despite recent inflows into ETFs and the accumulation of futures positions. Caution is therefore more visible on bitcoin than on gold.

The decrease in hedges could shift the balance of power

This difference fuels the scenario put forward by JPMorgan. Analysts write that the higher short interest on IBIT compared to GLD “could strengthen bitcoin’s appeal relative to gold from here if hedging demand weakens”.

The wording remains conditional. Thus, the reasoning is not to announce that bitcoin will surpass gold, but to identify a market mechanism. If investors reduce their protections, the retreat of certain defensive positions could offer more support to BTC.

Analysts also indicate that other factors may influence the respective trajectories of bitcoin and gold. Above all, their comparison focuses on positioning. Gold arrives with ETF flows already restored and a relatively contained short interest level. However, bitcoin retains more short positions and stronger hedging demand. This asymmetry can become an advantage if it subsides.

The JPMorgan interpretation remains nuanced. Thus, bitcoin still lags in recovering ETF flows compared to gold, but this lag is accompanied by a more skeptical positioning that could, under certain conditions, turn in its favor. Everything will depend on the evolution of hedging demand and the market context. The potential identified by the bank relies less on directional conviction than on the possibility of a catch-up if current caution starts to ease.