Kalshi and Polymarket Signal High Odds of U.S. Government Shutdown

The possibility of a U.S. government shutdown is dominating prediction markets, with traders betting heavily on the outcome. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket show a strong consensus that negotiations in Washington are unlikely to deliver a deal in time. Rising volumes and market probabilities above 85% suggest that participants see a shutdown as the most likely outcome.

Kalshi and Polymarket Traders Bet Millions as Odds Exceed 85%

Bets placed on Kalshi and Polymarket have drawn more than $4.6 million in trading volume, reflecting intense speculation about the government’s ability to avoid a shutdown. Both platforms now estimate the probability of a shutdown at over 85%, a figure that has climbed as partisan talks stall.

Some users are positioning for a contrarian outcome, betting on the chance of a last-minute deal similar to previous standoffs. However, momentum appears to be shifting in the other direction. Vice President JD Vance stated after a recent meeting that the country was “headed into a shutdown,” offering little optimism for a breakthrough.

A shutdown would be the first in several years, with potential consequences extending beyond temporary suspensions. President Donald Trump suggested the government could use the crisis to enact permanent staff cuts, signaling a more disruptive scenario for federal workers.

Growing Spotlight on Prediction Markets

Prediction platforms have increasingly become barometers for political and economic risk. Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet on real-world outcomes, with market prices reflecting crowd-sourced probabilities. Their popularity has surged during major news cycles, giving traders and observers a new way to gauge sentiment.

Kalshi recently reported $500 million in trading volume over a single weekend, surpassing activity recorded during Election Day. Polymarket, meanwhile, has rolled out 4% annual rewards for long-term positions and continues to benefit from recent regulatory clarity. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted a no-action notice to entities tied to Polymarket, giving the platform a green light to continue U.S. operations.

Investor confidence in the sector is also reflected in ongoing fundraising talks. Reports indicate Polymarket may be valued at up to $9 billion in its next round, while Kalshi is seeking investments at around $5 billion. For now, attention remains fixed on Capitol Hill. With no deal in sight, Kalshi and Polymarket participants now treat a shutdown as the market’s expected outcome.