Palantir: Opportunity of a Lifetime or Bubble of the Century?

Unknown to the general public, but omnipresent behind the scenes of power, Palantir works with governments and multinationals by exploiting data. Valued at over 400 billion dollars after a 2000% increase since 2023, it represents either the investment opportunity of a generation or the next speculative bubble ready to burst.

Palantir: the most mysterious company in the world

The story begins in 2003. Peter Thiel, PayPal co-founder, close to Elon Musk, seeks to create the ultimate tech company to protect America. The post-9/11 context creates urgency. The CIA quickly injects 2 million via its In-Q-Tel fund. Thiel adds 30 million out of his own pocket.

The name Palantir comes from The Lord of the Rings. These stones reveal secrets through time and space. The ambition is clear: to create a knowing system capable of analyzing all existing data on Earth. Alex Karp, a philosophy doctor with messy hair and somewhat odd, becomes CEO. An atypical choice for a tech company.

The beginnings are difficult. Yet, the CIA quickly adopts the first software, Gotham. The FBI follows. The US military as well. Rumors persist: Gotham allegedly helped locate Bin Laden. Karp surrounds himself with bodyguards 24/7 the following year.

France signs with Palantir in 2016. The DGSI (French secret services) seeks solutions after the 2015 attacks. The French army tests the system for its operations. The UK, Germany, and Sweden also adopt Gotham. Europe gradually becomes dependent on this opaque American technology.

Palantir knows everything about you

Palantir embodies a fascinating paradox. Peter Thiel, a convinced libertarian, criticizes the surveillance state. Yet, he builds the most powerful surveillance tool ever created.

Controversies accumulate around Palantir. The Los Angeles police uses Gotham for predictive profiling. Innocents are arrested based on algorithms. Israel uses it to raze Gaza. Palantir’s algorithms allow target elimination. No need for human analysts. The algorithm alone decides on people to watch, arrest, or eliminate. 

The Trump administration also has, thanks to Palantir, a centralized super-database. All citizen data in a single base to track migrants for expulsion from the territory.

Palantir, a dystopian nightmare

Ultimately, Palantir is nothing more than the capitalist form of mass surveillance. The Chinese Communist Party has its social credit system; the West has Palantir.

Two systems, two ideologies, but the same reality: dystopia.

Palantir booms on the stock market

Palantir stock trades at 107 times its revenue. The price rose from 10 to 180 dollars since the 2020 IPO. For context, Amazon at the internet bubble peak traded at 20 times. The average S&P 500 stock trades at 3 times sales. Palantir’s multiples thus defy traditional financial logic.

The market cap reaches 400 billion. More than McDonald’s, Nike, and Coca-Cola combined!

A bubble ready to burst?

Several warning signs alarm cautious analysts. First, the AI bubble could burst like the previous ones. The AI winters of the 1970s-1980s remind of overinvestment dangers. AI adoption in companies remains limited despite the hype. Especially since the long-awaited GPT-5 release was very disappointing, which revived the hypothesis of an AI glass ceiling.

The Palantir market is indeed limited. Governments and large companies form a niche. Unlike cloud platforms, growth is neither scalable nor defendable. Government budget priorities can change quickly.

Government contracts depend on stability. Administration changes can disrupt Palantir revenues. For example, Trump could cut some budgets despite his expressed support.

A 2000s vibe?

The wind is starting to turn. For several days, insiders have been massively selling their shares. This behavior recalls the last days of the internet bubble. Executives get rid before the expected collapse. A classic signal of doubt. We will remember the companies Pets.com and Webvan which lost 99% of their value after the 2000 internet bubble burst. Never forget that extreme valuations always end up correcting!

So, should you invest in Palantir? On one side, Palantir shows explosive growth and a monopolistic position in the ultra-strategic AI market. On the other, its crazy valuations and major ethical risks make it a risky investment. Palantir could become the operating system of our civilization… or collapse like so many other tech bubbles.