Strait of Hormuz closed, inflation at 5%: Will Bitcoin explode or collapse?

The Strait of Hormuz closed, oil boiling, and U.S. inflation at 5%. In this explosive context, Bitcoin holds firm at $67,000. Here’s how BTC could turn this crisis into an opportunity at $74,000.

Iran/Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Bitcoin Holds Strong Despite Everything

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, has caused a shock in oil markets. With 20% of the world’s oil blocked, JPMorgan analysts predict a barrel at $120–130, which could push U.S. inflation up to 5%. However, Bitcoin, often sensitive to geopolitical crises, remains around $67,000.

This resilience is explained by several factors. First, part of the geopolitical risks had already been anticipated by the markets. Moreover, reduced liquidity over the weekend softened volatility. However, if Iran intensifies its actions by targeting, for example, oil infrastructures, BTC could then face additional pressure.

Bitcoin at $74,000? What the Charts Reveal 

Bitcoin charts show an interesting technical structure. Indeed, on the daily chart, BTC held the key support at $65,000, while resistance at $74,000 becomes a realistic target for the coming days. The 21-day moving average, located around $67,627, is closely watched! A breakout above could then trigger a significant rebound.

However, Michaël van de Poppe believes that Bitcoin needs to break this moving average to start a true rally. Crypto Caesar anticipates sideways movement before a clear decision. BitBull, more optimistic, sees in current stability a sign of strength, with a target at $74,000 if traditional markets hold.

Inflation at 5%, Fed Under Pressure: Will BTC Become the New Digital Gold?

With U.S. inflation possibly reaching 5%, the Fed finds itself in a delicate position. Historically, Bitcoin has often been compared to digital gold, a safe haven asset during economic crises. However, its current correlation with stock markets like the Nasdaq shows it remains a risky asset in the short term.

Data shows that a $10 increase in oil price can add about 0.2% to the U.S. CPI. In this context, Bitcoin could benefit from its limited supply status, especially if institutions continue to adopt ETFs. Yet, if the geopolitical situation worsens into a recession, BTC could drop below $50,000.

Bitcoin stands at a decisive crossroads. On one hand, the geopolitical crisis and soaring inflation could propel it to new highs. On the other, escalating conflict or economic recession could make it plunge. What do you think, could BTC reach $74,000 in this context?