Trump Climbs Nobel Ranks On Polymarket And Kalshi

In a global climate under high tension, an unexpected name emerges in the bets related to the Nobel Peace Prize : Donald Trump. Indeed, favored on the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms, the American president outstrips several historical figures. This breakthrough, driven by geopolitical dynamics and relayed in crypto circles, triggers as much speculation as questions. Simple reflection of a strategic enthusiasm or indication of an international repositioning ?

Trump propelled into the Nobel race by predictive markets

While his administration has put the global economy under pressure with tariffs, on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform using blockchain technology, Donald Trump currently ranks second in predictions for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. With an 11 % estimated chance, he is only surpassed by Yulia Navalnaya, wife of the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, who collects 18 % of the bets.

On the Kalshi side, a platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Trump shows a probability of 13 %, compared to 25 % for Navalnaya. This notable presence in the odds fuels an unexpected media debate. Trump has thus become the unlikely runner-up for a prize to which few traditionally associated him.

Here are the key elements noted on the main predictive platforms :

• 1 million dollars have been wagered on Polymarket for this prediction ;
• Kalshi shows a total volume of 3.1 million dollars in this category ;
• Trump surpasses traditional Nobel Prize figures such as Doctors Without Borders or the UN.

The reasons for this enthusiasm are to be found in political declarations and recent media maneuvers. Hillary Clinton even stated that she “would support his nomination if he succeeded in ending the war in Ukraine”.

This unexpected statement from a former rival highlights the complexity of the context and the ambivalence of reactions. Prediction markets translate these developments into concrete signals.

The rise of crypto predictive markets and their limits in real-world analysis

What truly distinguishes this news, beyond the figure of Trump alone, is the growing role that crypto predictive markets play in shaping media narratives.

Polymarket and Kalshi are not just betting sites. They aggregate in real time on-chain data and users’ anticipations, whose choices often reflect a speculative but also emotional reading of upcoming events.

Other actors are well represented : UNRWA (9 %), Doctors Without Borders (11 %), the International Court of Justice (8 %), as well as figures like Greta Thunberg, Antonio Guterres, and Francesca Albanese. This diversity illustrates a strong polarization of expectations, amid persistent global conflicts and pressing climate issues.

However, it would be risky to confuse these odds with objective probabilities. Predictive markets reflect bets, not verdicts. Their volatility is influenced by media cycles, cognitive biases, and sometimes even coordinated contract-buying campaigns to artificially raise certain candidates.

In Trump’s case, his high visibility could explain this sudden rise. The Trump surprise may be less an institutional recognition than a signal of the opinion state of part of the crypto and political ecosystem.

Nevertheless, this quest for recognition is not without criticism. Several analysts highlight the contradictions between nominations and realities on the ground, recalling the US strikes in Iran or the absence of tangible results on certain issues. As the award ceremony approaches, scheduled for October 10, 2025, these tensions are expected to intensify, fueling debate on the legitimacy and symbolism of such recognition.