Bitcoin and Ondo: Key Levels to Watch After the Recent Correction

As I indicated in my last analysis, the bearish scenario on Bitcoin remained the most likely. The market has indeed continued its correction and is now approaching an important technical zone. At the same time, ETF flows remain too timid to speak of a real return of institutional conviction. Finally, on Ondo’s side, the euphoria born after the SBI announcement attracted many retail investors, which encourages me to remain patient and disciplined on my entry points.

Bitcoin: the bearish scenario remains intact as long as resistances are not reclaimed

As I mentioned in the previous analysis, Bitcoin was heading towards the 60,000-dollar zone. So far, this scenario is unfolding quite cleanly. The price came to test the 62,200 to 62,500-dollar zone, which today remains one of the most important short-term market supports. It is precisely this area that, for the moment, prevents a more pronounced acceleration towards 60,000 dollars and then towards 58,000-59,000 dollars.

If we take a step back and look at the daily chart, the reading remains clear: Bitcoin is still evolving in a bearish structure. The highs are getting lower, the rebounds lack strength, and sellers still hold the upper hand on the general trend. This does not mean that a rebound is impossible, but simply that on a macro scale there is not yet a strong enough signal to talk about a sustainable reversal.

As long as the price stays above the 62,200-62,500 dollar zone, a technical rebound can still develop. However, a clear break of this support would open, in my opinion, the door to a quicker move towards 58,000-59,000 dollars. This is the next zone I would watch very closely, as it has already served as a foothold for the market in the past and could once again attract buyers.

As I have already explained in my previous analyses, anything that brings Bitcoin below 65,000 dollars seems interesting to me to gradually build a long term position through a DCA strategy. No one can buy the exact bottom point with certainty. The objective is therefore not to guess the perfect price, but to accumulate at levels that remain, in my opinion, attractive in a long-term vision.

The 4-hour chart confirms that the bearish channel still dominates

Here, I show you the four-hour chart. It clearly shows the bearish channel in which Bitcoin has been moving for several sessions. The price touched the 62,250-dollar zone before slightly rebounding, but this rebound occurred without invalidating the bearish structure. In other words, Bitcoin rebounds, certainly, but it still does so within a technical framework that remains unfavorable.

This is an important point, as many investors interpret any rebound too quickly as a recovery signal. For my part, I prefer to stick to what the chart shows: as long as the price respects this descending channel, the bias remains bearish. The 62,250-dollar zone therefore continues to play a central role as support, but we will have to observe how the market reacts in the coming sessions. If this level breaks, selling pressure could accelerate quickly.

In summary, I remain bearish on Bitcoin in the short term. To consider a more constructive scenario, the price would need, at a minimum, to sustainably reclaim the higher resistance zones and cleanly exit this descending structure.

Bitcoin ETFs show some purchases but not yet conviction

Looking at Bitcoin ETF flows, the message remains the same: rather cautious. Since July 23, sales and capital outflows have generally been more pronounced than the purchases observed before. Early August shows a slight return of inflows, but these amounts remain modest and do not resemble what we see during real phases of institutional accumulation.

In short, some purchases are coming back, but nothing strong enough to say that big players are back aggressively. To really change the reading, I would need to see several consecutive sessions with much stronger flows, able to confirm a sustainable return of institutional demand. For now, the ETFs do not invalidate my main scenario: that of a fragile market that can still experience a new leg down.

Ondo: FOMO is back, but patience remains the best strategy

I will now talk about Ondo, because it is an asset I continue to follow closely. You remember I started buying Ondo around 0.30 dollars, even before the SBI announcement a few days ago. Just after this announcement, we witnessed the classic crypto market scenario: many retail investors rushed to the asset, driven by FOMO, news, and the fear of missing an opportunity.

It is precisely for this reason that I often repeat that an investment is made when almost no one is yet talking about the project. The best opportunities rarely appear when everyone is already excited. Ondo had spent a long period accumulating laterally on the daily unit, with relative indifference. Then, the price broke its bearish channel, triggering a rapid acceleration.

Today, the important point to watch is not a supposed perfect resistance, but the price behavior around 0.37 dollars. If Ondo were to close below this level, a new correction phase could quickly bring the price back to the 0.30 to 0.32 dollar zone. It is precisely this area that I will continue to monitor, as it could once again offer an accumulation opportunity if the market confirms a solid support.

For my part, I chose to take profits on my spot position bought around 0.30 dollars, because I think there is a real possibility to reposition lower than the price at which I sold. In my eyes, it is often better to anticipate, secure gains, then wait until retail investors withdraw and the market purges the excess euphoria. This is how, in my opinion, wealth can be built: buying when pessimism dominates, not when everyone is already chasing the movement.

Conclusion

At this stage, my reading remains simple. Bitcoin is still evolving within a bearish structure, and the 62,200-62,500 dollar zone remains the most important support to watch in the short term. If this level breaks, I expect the market to seek 58,000-59,000 dollars. ETFs do show some purchases, but not yet enough strength to invalidate this scenario. Finally, on Ondo’s side, the market has already reacted strongly to SBI’s announcement, which pushes me to favor patience rather than FOMO.

As always, I prefer to accumulate when the market calms down, in zones that offer a better risk/reward ratio.