Bitcoin : Options Signal A Measured Return Of Optimism

After twelve months of caution, Bitcoin options traders change direction. Since August 20, they pay more to bet on a rise in BTC than to protect against a decline, an unprecedented shift in a year. The signal comes while bitcoin trades around $78,278, far from its peak above $126,000 in October 2025. Between dominance of call options, increase in futures positions, and bets concentrated under $100,000, the derivatives market shows renewed but still measured optimism.

In the options market, bullish sentiment takes over

The clearest signal comes from the 25-delta skew, an indicator comparing the price of options for calls and puts with comparable market exposure. According to Derive data shared in the source, this volatility bias turned positive on August 20. Traders now accept paying a higher premium for call options, which allow exposure to bitcoin’s rise, rather than for put options used as protection against a drop. Thus, the shift marks a break after twelve months when caution dominated this market segment.

Open positions confirm this reading. Indeed, call options represent 305,530.06 BTC, or 61.39% of the open interest recorded, versus 192,126.29 BTC, or 38.61%, for put options. The gap is also visible in twenty-four-hour trading: 18,892.23 BTC of call options were traded, compared to 12,497.93 BTC of put options. For September, positioning hovered around 1.8 calls for one put. This asymmetry reflects a more aggressive market, without constituting a certain forecast for BTC’s rise.

Three data points summarize the shift in Bitcoin options positioning :

• 61.39% of open interest is now made up of calls, versus 38.61% puts ;
• 18,892.23 BTC of calls traded over twenty-four hours, versus 12,497.93 BTC of puts ;
• September positioning reached about 1.8 calls for one put.

Futures positions reach $52.64 billion

The futures market provides another measure of Bitcoin derivatives activity. Its open interest reaches 676,820 BTC, or $52.64 billion, after a 2.33% increase over twenty-four hours. Binance holds 142,870 BTC, valued at $11.11 billion, or 21.1% of the total. CME follows with 108,630 BTC, or $8.45 billion. Gate represents $4.94 billion, Bybit $4.83 billion, MEXC $4.39 billion, and OKX $2.78 billion.

Variations between platforms remain uneven. Over twenty-four hours, open interest increases by 1.66% on Binance and 1.41% on CME, while Gate reports a 3.03% decrease. BingX stands out with an 80.18% increase. In the short term, the overall movement loses momentum as open interest falls 0.30% over one hour and 0.15% over four hours. These data describe an increase in open positions during the day, without uniform progression across all platforms and timeframes observed.

Between $70,000 and $100,000, traders map out their scenarios

Preferred strike prices help specify what this return of optimism means. For December, Derive records about $710 million positioned at $80,000 and $530 million at $100,000. On Deribit, the September 25 call at $70,000 concentrates 10,956.7 BTC, ahead of the $85,000 call with 9,492.8 BTC and the $70,000 put with 9,426.8 BTC. Calls at $90,000, $80,000, $100,000, and $82,000 also rank among major positions.

Thus, the distribution shapes a contained optimism. September’s bullish bets focus between $78,000 and $100,000, while bearish protections cluster more around $60,000 and below. Some traders assign an almost zero probability to a return above the October 2025 peak, exceeding $126,000. On CME, puts remain more numerous than calls, while options open interest has recovered from summer lows but remains below levels seen at the end of 2025.

The return of a positive volatility bias alone is not enough to announce a surge in bitcoin price. For Deribit’s September 25 expiration, representing about $15 billion in notional value, max pain is around $72,000, and for December 25 near $71,000. On Binance, this level hovers around $75,000 for September. After twelve months of caution, the options market has indeed changed bias. However, its positions show that players currently favor a measured bullish scenario rather than a swift return to BTC’s previous highs.